Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Botev Plovdiv 1-1 Lokomotiv Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Botev Plovdiv, 16% draw, 24% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 1.67, 6.25 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botev Plovdiv at 60% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 29Daniel NaumovG
- 41Veliyan VidolovM
- 20Timothy AwanyD
- 4Nikola SoldoD
- 27Bryan-Anthony Chibuike HeinD
- 14Carlos Algarra LópezM
- 10Asen ChandarovM
- 88Williams Chimezie OluebubeF
- 19Dimitar TonevM
- 90Samuel KaluM
- 9Chidera Micheal OkohF
- 17Georgi MilanovM
- 45Edson SilvaM
- 44Carlos MeottiM
- 30Franklin MascoteF
- 1Hristiyan SlavkovG
- 82Vladimir MendesD
- 15Bogdan KostovD
- 6Ivaylo VidevD
- 87Simeon PetrovD
- 99Martin VelichkovG
- 22Reyan DaskalovD
- 44Bozhidar KatsarovD
- 91Ryan BidoungaD
- 14Angel LyaskovD
- 5Erol DostM
- 31Krasimir StanoevM
- 7Spas DelevM
- 20Dimitar KostadinovM
- 17Mark Emilio PapazovM
- 10Georgi MinchevF
- 3Kaloyan KostovD
- 71Nikolas PenevM
- 26Krasimir MiloshevM
- 21Kristian ChachevM
- 11Adil TaouiM
- 24Aleksandar LyubenovG
- 19Mitko MitkovD
- 45Gerov EmilF
- 77Caue Caruzo AlvesF
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia
- 27 March 2026Botev Plovdiv 3–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFriendlies Clubs
- 6 December 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 3–2 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 10 August 2025Botev Plovdiv 0–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 18 April 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 15 December 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 1–5 Botev PlovdivCup
Leading scorers: Botev Plovdiv and Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
GoalsAssists
- C. Meotti10
Lokomotiv Sofia
GoalsAssists
- S. Delev11
- D. Kostadinov10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Botev Plovdiv and Lokomotiv Sofia drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Botev Plovdiv at 60% and given a draw 16%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: D. Kostadinov 49' for Lokomotiv Sofia, C. Meotti 79' for Botev Plovdiv.