Vasteras SK FK
vs
Djurgardens IF
The model makes it 32% Vasteras SK FK, 22% draw, 46% Djurgardens IF — fair odds of 3.13, 4.55 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Vasteras SK FK 1.76, Djurgardens IF 2.12.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Vasteras SK FK
- L0-6away to Djurgardens IF3 August 2026
- W2-0Orgryte IS24 July 2026
- D0-0away to Mjallby AIF17 July 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF12 July 2026
- W3-1away to Halmstad4 July 2026
Djurgardens IF
- W6-0Vasteras SK FK3 August 2026
- W1-0away to Degerfors IF25 July 2026
- D0-0away to Orgryte IS20 July 2026
- W3-0Halmstad13 July 2026
- W4-2away to BK Hacken6 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Vasteras SK FK | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 22 |
| 3 | Djurgardens IF | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 15 | +18 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF
- 3 August 2026Djurgardens IF 6–0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
- 7 February 2026Vasteras SK FK 0–1 Djurgardens IFFriendlies Clubs
- 25 January 2025Vasteras SK FK 3–3 Djurgardens IFFriendlies Clubs
- 28 October 2024Djurgardens IF 2–1 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
- 5 May 2024Vasteras SK FK 0–2 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
- 27 January 2024Vasteras SK FK 0–0 Djurgardens IFFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers
Vasteras SK FK
- M. Ladefoged9 goals2 assists
Djurgardens IF
- K. Lien10 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Vasteras SK FK carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.56 for Djurgardens IF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Vasteras SK FK W-W-D-W-L; Djurgardens IF W-W-D-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Vasteras SK FK and 2.12 for Djurgardens IF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vasteras SK FK rate 0.70 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Djurgardens IF rate 0.74 and 1.33.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vasteras SK FK a 0% chance of the title and Djurgardens IF 1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 234 correct results out of 488 settled predictions (48%), with 47 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Djurgardens IF the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK against 2.12 for Djurgardens IF. Vasteras SK FK's attack/defence rating is 0.7/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.33 for Djurgardens IF.