AS Roma
vs
Fiorentina
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 77% AS Roma, 15% draw, 8% Fiorentina — fair odds of 1.30, 6.67 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: AS Roma 2.71, Fiorentina 0.82.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Fiorentina
- 4 May 2026AS Roma 4–0 FiorentinaSerie A
- 5 October 2025Fiorentina 1–2 AS RomaSerie A
- 4 May 2025AS Roma 1–0 FiorentinaSerie A
- 27 October 2024Fiorentina 5–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 10 March 2024Fiorentina 2–2 AS RomaSerie A
- 10 December 2023AS Roma 1–1 FiorentinaSerie A
The two sides
AS Roma carry a model rating of 7.3 against 6.86 for Fiorentina. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.71 goals for AS Roma and 0.82 for Fiorentina. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AS Roma rate 1.61 in attack and 0.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fiorentina rate 0.90 and 0.89.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 302 correct results out of 627 settled predictions (48%), with 61 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.71 expected goals for AS Roma against 0.82 for Fiorentina. AS Roma's attack/defence rating is 1.61/0.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/0.89 for Fiorentina.