AS Roma vs Fiorentina Serie A prediction & result
Final score: AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina.
Before kick-off the model made it 76% AS Roma, 15% draw, 9% Fiorentina — fair odds of 1.32, 6.67 and 11.11.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
AS Roma at 76%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AS Roma vs Fiorentina
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99M. SvilarG
- 23G. ManciniD
- 5E. NdickaD
- 22M. HermosoD
- 77E. LulliM
- 4B. CristanteM
- 17M. KoneM
- 43Wesley FrancaM
- 21P. DybalaF
- 86R. MoraF
- 14D. MalenF
- 70G. De MarziG
- 95P. GolliniG
- 20N. MolinaD
- 3K. KoulierakisD
- 24J. ZiolkowskiD
- 87D. GhilardiD
- 61N. PisilliM
- 8N. El AynaouiM
- 9S. CastroF
- 43D. de GeaG
- 2DodoD
- 3R. DragusinD
- 6L. RanieriD
- 17Joao MarioD
- 27C. NdourM
- 44N. FagioliM
- 4M. BrescianiniM
- 30F. MastantuonoM
- 14A. AttaM
- 32M. PellegrinoF
- 19L. LezzeriniG
- 53O. ChristensenG
- 5M. PongracicD
- 20A. JimenezD
- 71E. KospoD
- 33VieryD
- 21V. Valdepenas
- 8R. MandragoraM
- 80G. FabbianM
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AS Roma | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 27 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Fiorentina
- 4 May 2026AS Roma 4–0 FiorentinaSerie A
- 5 October 2025Fiorentina 1–2 AS RomaSerie A
- 4 May 2025AS Roma 1–0 FiorentinaSerie A
- 27 October 2024Fiorentina 5–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 10 March 2024Fiorentina 2–2 AS RomaSerie A
Leading scorers: AS Roma and Fiorentina
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen82
- Rodrigo Mora40
Fiorentina
GoalsAssists
- Mateo Pellegrino40
- Franco Mastantuono40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AS Roma beat Fiorentina 4–0. The model had made a win for AS Roma its most likely outcome, at 76%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: D. Malen 27' for AS Roma, D. Malen 52' for AS Roma, D. Malen 60' for AS Roma, N. Pisilli 86' for AS Roma. On expected goals it finished 2.77–0.28.