Bologna
vs
Lazio
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 42% Bologna, 26% draw, 32% Lazio — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bologna 1.50, Lazio 1.27.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Bologna vs Lazio
- 22 March 2026Bologna 0–2 LazioSerie A
- 11 February 2026Bologna 1–1 LazioCoppa Italia
- 7 December 2025Lazio 1–1 BolognaSerie A
- 16 March 2025Bologna 5–0 LazioSerie A
- 24 November 2024Lazio 3–0 BolognaSerie A
- 18 February 2024Lazio 1–2 BolognaSerie A
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bologna carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.97 for Lazio. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Bologna and 1.27 for Lazio. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bologna rate 0.90 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lazio rate 1.11 and 0.88.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 302 correct results out of 627 settled predictions (48%), with 61 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bologna the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.5 expected goals for Bologna against 1.27 for Lazio. Bologna's attack/defence rating is 0.9/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/0.88 for Lazio.