Bolton
vs
Bristol City
Championship prediction
Our model says: Bolton 1–0 Bristol City
The model makes it 45% Bolton, 28% draw, 27% Bristol City — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bolton 1.49, Bristol City 1.03.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Bolton are 15th on 14 points from 11 games; Bristol City are 16th on 14 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Bolton have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Southampton.
- Bristol City are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sheffield Utd.
- Last 6 meetings: Bristol City 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 January 2019, ended Bristol City 2–1 Bolton.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bolton vs Bristol City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bolton at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bolton vs Bristol City
Bolton
- D0-0away to Southampton17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Wolves13 October 2026
- L1-2Stoke City10 October 2026
- W4-3away to Norwich20 September 2026
- W1-0Cardiff12 September 2026
Bristol City
- L0-1Sheffield Utd17 October 2026
- L0-1Blackburn13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Charlton10 October 2026
- W1-0Watford18 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln15 September 2026
What these results say
- Bolton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bristol City had two goals or fewer.
- Bristol City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bristol City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bolton | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 14 |
| 16 | Bristol City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bolton
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
Bristol City
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bolton vs Bristol City
- 25 January 2019Bristol City 2–1 BoltonFA Cup
- 12 January 2019Bristol City 2–1 BoltonChampionship
- 11 August 2018Bolton 2–2 Bristol CityChampionship
- 2 February 2018Bolton 1–0 Bristol CityChampionship
- 26 September 2017Bristol City 2–0 BoltonChampionship
- 19 March 2016Bristol City 6–0 BoltonChampionship
Leading scorers: Bolton and Bristol City
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby40
Bristol City
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bolton carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.46 for Bristol City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Bolton and 1.03 for Bristol City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bolton rate 0.73 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bristol City rate 0.62 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bolton a 0.9% chance of the title and Bristol City 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bolton the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Bolton against 1.03 for Bristol City. Bolton's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.35 for Bristol City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bolton at home · Bristol City away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BoltonBristol City
Bolton are 13th after 11 Championship matches (between 1st and 22nd so far); Bristol City are 14th after 11 (between 3rd and 23rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Bolton 11, Bristol City 11.
Bolton score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Bristol City have let in 0 there.
Bristol City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Bolton have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bolton
- at Charlton3 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
- at Derby6 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- vs Portsmouth21 Nov · Championshipwin 43%
- vs West Brom25 Nov · Championshipwin 39%
Bristol City
- vs Wolves4 Nov · Championshipwin 30%
- vs Norwich7 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- at Middlesbrough21 Nov · Championshipwin 20%
- vs Wrexham24 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.