Middlesbrough
vs
Charlton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Middlesbrough 1–0 Charlton
The model makes it 56% Middlesbrough, 26% draw, 18% Charlton — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Middlesbrough 1.80, Charlton 0.78.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Middlesbrough are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Middlesbrough are 3rd on 22 points from 11 games; Charlton are 17th on 14 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Cardiff.
- Charlton have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Watford.
- Last 6 meetings: Middlesbrough 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 March 2026, ended Middlesbrough 0–1 Charlton.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Middlesbrough vs Charlton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Middlesbrough at 56% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 927 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Middlesbrough vs Charlton
Middlesbrough
- D2-2Cardiff17 October 2026
- W3-2away to Stoke City13 October 2026
- W1-0Wolves10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham19 September 2026
- D2-2Millwall15 September 2026
Charlton
- L0-2away to Watford17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Burnley13 October 2026
- D1-1Bristol City10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cardiff19 September 2026
- D0-0Portsmouth12 September 2026
What these results say
- Middlesbrough went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Charlton did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Charlton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 22 |
| 17 | Charlton | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Middlesbrough
Chance to finish in the top four · 49% today
Charlton
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Charlton vs Middlesbrough
Charlton and Middlesbrough have met 6 times in the records we hold, Middlesbrough has won 4 of them to Charlton's 2.
The record
Charlton won the last one 1–0 on 11 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| Middlesbrough | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 11 Mar 2026
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 0–1 Charlton - 9 Dec 2025
ChampionshipCharlton 1–2 Middlesbrough - 7 Mar 2020
ChampionshipCharlton 0–1 Middlesbrough - 7 Dec 2019
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 1–0 Charlton - 13 Mar 2016
ChampionshipCharlton 2–0 Middlesbrough - 31 Oct 2015
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 3–0 Charlton
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 0.53 | 1.34 |
| Middlesbrough | 0.89 | 1.23 |
Leading scorers: Middlesbrough and Charlton
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear80
Charlton
GoalsAssists
- T. Campbell41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Middlesbrough carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.4 for Charlton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.78 for Charlton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Middlesbrough rate 0.89 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charlton rate 0.53 and 1.34.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Middlesbrough a 11.5% chance of the title and Charlton 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Middlesbrough the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Middlesbrough against 0.78 for Charlton. Middlesbrough's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.34 for Charlton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Middlesbrough at home · Charlton away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MiddlesbroughCharlton
Middlesbrough are 2nd after 11 Championship matches (between 2nd and 10th so far); Charlton are 13th after 11 (between 1st and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Middlesbrough 11, Charlton 11.
Middlesbrough score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Charlton have let in 3 there.
Charlton score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Middlesbrough have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Middlesbrough
- at Wrexham4 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
- at Watford7 Nov · Championshipwin 49%
- vs Bristol City21 Nov · Championshipwin 54%
- vs Swansea24 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
Charlton
- vs Bolton3 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- vs Sheffield Utd7 Nov · Championshipwin 32%
- at Wolves21 Nov · Championshipwin 18%
- vs Lincoln24 Nov · Championshipwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.