Lincoln
vs
Birmingham
Championship prediction
Our model says: Lincoln 0–1 Birmingham
The model makes it 28% Lincoln, 29% draw, 43% Birmingham — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Lincoln 1.05, Birmingham 1.44.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Birmingham: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lincoln are 18th on 12 points from 11 games; Birmingham are 4th on 20 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Lincoln are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Millwall.
- Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to QPR.
- Last 3 meetings: Birmingham 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2025, ended Birmingham 1–0 Lincoln.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lincoln vs Birmingham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Birmingham at 43% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lincoln vs Birmingham
Lincoln
- D2-2away to Millwall17 October 2026
- L0-6West Ham14 October 2026
- L0-3away to Sheffield Utd10 October 2026
- L1-2Swansea19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bristol City15 September 2026
Birmingham
- W3-0QPR17 October 2026
- W4-0Preston13 October 2026
- W1-0away to West Brom10 October 2026
- D2-2Middlesbrough19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Derby12 September 2026
What these results say
- Lincoln failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lincoln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lincoln had three goals or more.
- Birmingham went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Birmingham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Birmingham won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lincoln | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 12 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lincoln
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
Birmingham
Chance to finish in the top four · 41% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Lincoln vs Birmingham
- 8 March 2025Birmingham 1–0 LincolnLeague One
- 11 January 2025Birmingham 2–1 LincolnFA Cup
- 19 October 2024Lincoln 1–3 BirminghamLeague One
Leading scorers: Lincoln and Birmingham
Lincoln
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- A. Priske41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lincoln carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.68 for Birmingham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Lincoln and 1.44 for Birmingham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lincoln rate 0.62 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Birmingham rate 0.80 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lincoln a 0% chance of the title and Birmingham 10.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Birmingham the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Lincoln against 1.44 for Birmingham. Lincoln's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.12 for Birmingham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lincoln at home · Birmingham away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LincolnBirmingham
Lincoln are 16th after 11 Championship matches (between 8th and 23rd so far); Birmingham are 3rd after 11 (between 3rd and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Lincoln 11, Birmingham 11.
Lincoln score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Birmingham have let in 8 there.
Birmingham score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Lincoln have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lincoln
- at Watford3 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- at QPR7 Nov · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Wrexham21 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
- at Charlton24 Nov · Championshipwin 30%
Birmingham
- vs Millwall3 Nov · Championshipwin 45%
- vs Swansea7 Nov · Championshipwin 41%
- at Stoke City21 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- at Burnley25 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.