Burnley
vs
Portsmouth
Championship prediction
Our model says: Burnley 1–0 Portsmouth
The model makes it 52% Burnley, 26% draw, 22% Portsmouth — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Burnley 1.72, Portsmouth 0.93.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Burnley: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Burnley are 22nd on 8 points from 11 games; Portsmouth are 13th on 14 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Burnley have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Wolves.
- Portsmouth have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Norwich.
- Last 4 meetings: Burnley 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 February 2025, ended Portsmouth 0–0 Burnley.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Burnley vs Portsmouth
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burnley at 52% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Burnley vs Portsmouth
Burnley
- L1-2Wolves16 October 2026
- D2-2Charlton13 October 2026
- W4-0away to Watford10 October 2026
- D1-1Derby19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swansea12 September 2026
Portsmouth
- W1-0away to Norwich17 October 2026
- W3-2Sheffield Utd14 October 2026
- L0-1away to Southampton11 October 2026
- D2-2Blackburn19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton12 September 2026
What these results say
- Burnley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Burnley failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burnley conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Portsmouth | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Burnley
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
Portsmouth
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Burnley vs Portsmouth
- 1 February 2025Portsmouth 0–0 BurnleyChampionship
- 21 September 2024Burnley 2–1 PortsmouthChampionship
- 31 March 2012Portsmouth 1–5 BurnleyChampionship
- 10 December 2011Burnley 0–1 PortsmouthChampionship
The two sides
Burnley carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.5 for Portsmouth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Burnley and 0.93 for Portsmouth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Burnley rate 0.85 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Portsmouth rate 0.67 and 1.34.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Portsmouth, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burnley a 1.3% chance of the title and Portsmouth 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burnley the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Burnley against 0.93 for Portsmouth. Burnley's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.34 for Portsmouth.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Burnley at home · Portsmouth away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BurnleyPortsmouth
Burnley are 21st after 11 Championship matches (between 10th and 24th so far); Portsmouth are 13th after 10 (between 9th and 22nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Burnley 11, Portsmouth 9.
Burnley score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Portsmouth have let in 2 there.
Portsmouth score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Burnley have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Burnley
- at QPR3 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
- at Cardiff7 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- vs Blackburn22 Nov · Championshipwin 51%
- vs Birmingham25 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
Portsmouth
- vs Swansea3 Nov · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Stoke City7 Nov · Championshipwin 40%
- at Bolton21 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.