Daejeon Citizen
vs
Ulsan Hyundai FC
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 42% Daejeon Citizen, 22% draw, 36% Ulsan Hyundai FC — fair odds of 2.38, 4.55 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Daejeon Citizen 1.99, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.84.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Daejeon Citizen
- W2-1away to FC Anyang8 August 2026
- W2-0Gwangju FC2 August 2026
- L2-3away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC25 July 2026
- D0-0away to Jeonbuk Motors21 July 2026
- D2-2Ulsan Hyundai FC18 July 2026
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- W2-0away to Pohang Steelers8 August 2026
- W3-1FC Anyang2 August 2026
- W3-1away to FC Seoul26 July 2026
- L1-2Incheon United21 July 2026
- D2-2away to Daejeon Citizen18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Daejeon Citizen | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 24 | +3 | 26 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Daejeon Citizen
No league goals recorded yet.
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- Yago Cariello4 goals
- Lee Dong-Gyeong3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Daejeon Citizen carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.72 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Daejeon Citizen D-D-L-W-W; Ulsan Hyundai FC D-L-W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.84 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Daejeon Citizen rate 0.63 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ulsan Hyundai FC rate 1.16 and 1.67.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ulsan Hyundai FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Daejeon Citizen a 0% chance of the title and Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 314 correct results out of 656 settled predictions (48%), with 62 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Daejeon Citizen the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen against 1.84 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Daejeon Citizen's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/1.67 for Ulsan Hyundai FC.