Sabah FA
vs
Hapoel Beer Sheva
UEFA Champions League prediction
The model makes it 72% Sabah FA, 16% draw, 12% Hapoel Beer Sheva — fair odds of 1.39, 6.25 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Sabah FA 2.84, Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.14.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Leading scorers
Sabah FA
- J. Mickels2 goals1 assists
- V. Simić2 goals
Hapoel Beer Sheva
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sabah FA carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.15 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sabah FA W-W-W-L-W; Hapoel Beer Sheva L-W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.84 goals for Sabah FA and 1.14 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sabah FA rate 0.65 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Beer Sheva rate 0.56 and 2.31.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 317 correct results out of 659 settled predictions (48%), with 62 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabah FA the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.84 expected goals for Sabah FA against 1.14 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Sabah FA's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.31 for Hapoel Beer Sheva.