Tigre
vs
Belgrano Cordoba
The model makes it 21% Tigre, 26% draw, 53% Belgrano Cordoba — fair odds of 4.76, 3.85 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Tigre 0.97, Belgrano Cordoba 1.67.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Tigre vs Belgrano Cordoba
- 29 January 2026Belgrano Cordoba 1–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 November 2025Belgrano Cordoba 0–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 22 April 2025Tigre 0–0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 13 June 2024Tigre 1–1 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 March 2024Tigre 1–4 Belgrano CordobaCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 7 November 2023Belgrano Cordoba 0–3 TigreCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers
Tigre
- D. Romero7 goals2 assists
Belgrano Cordoba
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Tigre carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.9 for Belgrano Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Tigre D-L-D-L-W; Belgrano Cordoba W-W-W-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for Tigre and 1.67 for Belgrano Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tigre rate 0.55 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Belgrano Cordoba rate 1.02 and 0.93.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Belgrano Cordoba the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Tigre against 1.67 for Belgrano Cordoba. Tigre's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/0.93 for Belgrano Cordoba.