Gais
vs
Malmo FF
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 48% Gais, 21% draw, 31% Malmo FF — fair odds of 2.08, 4.76 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Gais 2.20, Malmo FF 1.77.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gais
- W2-0away to Halmstad9 August 2026
- D1-1Halmstad26 July 2026
- L0-2away to AIK Stockholm18 July 2026
- W1-0IF Elfsborg12 July 2026
- D1-1away to IF Brommapojkarna6 July 2026
Malmo FF
- L1-2Degerfors IF9 August 2026
- W2-1away to IF Brommapojkarna2 August 2026
- L1-2IF Elfsborg26 July 2026
- D2-2away to Kalmar FF20 July 2026
- W4-0IFK Goteborg12 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Gais | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 20 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 27 | +4 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Gais
No league goals recorded yet.
Malmo FF
- E. Botheim10 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gais carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.44 for Malmo FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Gais D-W-L-D-W; Malmo FF W-D-L-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.20 goals for Gais and 1.77 for Malmo FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gais rate 0.63 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Malmo FF rate 0.79 and 1.85.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 74% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Malmo FF, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gais the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.2 expected goals for Gais against 1.77 for Malmo FF. Gais's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.85 for Malmo FF.