Beşiktaş
vs
Başakşehir
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Beşiktaş 2–1 Başakşehir
The model makes it 48% Beşiktaş, 25% draw, 27% Başakşehir — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Beşiktaş 1.94, Başakşehir 1.31.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Beşiktaş are 2nd on 15 points from 7 games; Başakşehir are 11th on 8 points from 7 games — Süper Lig.
- Beşiktaş have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Kocaelispor.
- Başakşehir have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Konyaspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Beşiktaş 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 February 2026, ended Başakşehir 2–3 Beşiktaş.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beşiktaş at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir
Beşiktaş
- W2-1Kocaelispor11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Amed20 September 2026
- W3-0Erzurumspor FK11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Fenerbahçe5 September 2026
- W6-2Çorum FK31 August 2026
Başakşehir
- D0-0away to Konyaspor11 October 2026
- W4-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.19 September 2026
- L0-5away to Amed13 September 2026
- L2-3Galatasaray4 September 2026
- D1-1Kasımpaşa30 August 2026
What these results say
- Beşiktaş scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Beşiktaş had three goals or more.
- Beşiktaş won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Başakşehir failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 15 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Beşiktaş
Chance to finish in the top four · 66% today
Başakşehir
Chance to finish in the top four · 21% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir
- 15 February 2026Başakşehir 2–3 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 13 September 2025Beşiktaş 2–1 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 12 April 2025Beşiktaş 0–2 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 10 November 2024Başakşehir 0–0 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 4 April 2024Başakşehir 1–1 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 12 November 2023Beşiktaş 1–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Beşiktaş and Başakşehir
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- D. Vlahović60
- V. Černý21
Başakşehir
GoalsAssists
- E. Shomurodov60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Beşiktaş carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.82 for Başakşehir. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for Beşiktaş and 1.31 for Başakşehir. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Beşiktaş rate 1.12 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Başakşehir rate 0.99 and 1.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Beşiktaş a 15.2% chance of the title and Başakşehir 1.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beşiktaş the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Beşiktaş against 1.31 for Başakşehir. Beşiktaş's attack/defence rating is 1.12/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.05 for Başakşehir.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Beşiktaş at home · Başakşehir away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BeşiktaşBaşakşehir
Beşiktaş are 2nd after 7 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 11th so far); Başakşehir are 11th after 7 (between 1st and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Beşiktaş 7, Başakşehir 7.
Beşiktaş score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Başakşehir have let in 1 there.
Başakşehir score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Beşiktaş have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Beşiktaş
- at Kasımpaşa1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 45%
- at Celtic5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 34%
Başakşehir
- vs Samsunspor1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 62%
- at Göztepe7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 41%
- vs Çorum FK23 Nov · Süper Ligwin 49%
- at Eyüpspor29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.