Al-Hazm
vs
Al-Fateh
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Hazm 1–0 Al-Fateh
The model makes it 39% Al-Hazm, 30% draw, 31% Al-Fateh — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al-Hazm 1.43, Al-Fateh 1.13.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Hazm are 10th on 8 points from 7 games; Al-Fateh are 15th on 3 points from 7 games — Pro League.
- Al-Hazm have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Al-Ahli Jeddah.
- Al-Fateh have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to NEOM.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended Al-Fateh 1–1 Al-Hazm.
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Hazm at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh
Al-Hazm
- L1-3away to Al-Ahli Jeddah11 September 2026
- W1-0Al Taawon8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Faisaly FC5 September 2026
- D1-1Al Shabab30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Ittihad24 August 2026
Al-Fateh
- L2-4away to NEOM13 September 2026
- L1-2Al Diriyah9 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Taawon5 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Ittihad29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Faisaly FC26 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Hazm failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hazm scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fateh did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al-Hazm | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Al-Fateh | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh
- 1 February 2026Al-Fateh 1–1 Al-HazmPro League
- 20 September 2025Al-Hazm 0–0 Al-FatehPro League
- 23 May 2024Al-Fateh 2–1 Al-HazmPro League
- 7 December 2023Al-Hazm 2–0 Al-FatehPro League
- 18 February 2022Al-Hazm 0–1 Al-FatehPro League
- 25 September 2021Al-Fateh 0–1 Al-HazmPro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al-Hazm carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.4 for Al-Fateh. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Al-Hazm and 1.13 for Al-Fateh. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Hazm rate 0.63 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Fateh rate 0.56 and 1.39.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Hazm the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Al-Hazm against 1.13 for Al-Fateh. Al-Hazm's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.39 for Al-Fateh.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Hazm at home · Al-Fateh away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Hazm 7, Al-Fateh 7.
Al-Hazm score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Al-Fateh have let in 0 there.
Al-Fateh score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Al-Hazm have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Hazm
- at Al-Hilal19 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 14%
- vs Al-Fayha22 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- at Al Khaleej Saihat29 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- vs Al-Nassr5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 22%
Al-Fateh
- vs Al Khaleej Saihat18 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- vs Al Shabab22 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 36%
- at Al-Hilal31 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 13%
- vs Al Riyadh5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.