Barnet
vs
Oldham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Barnet 2–1 Oldham
The model makes it 54% Barnet, 23% draw, 23% Oldham — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Barnet 2.18, Oldham 1.25.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Barnet: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Barnet are 2nd on 18 points from 8 games; Oldham are 21st on 8 points from 9 games — League Two.
- Barnet are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Bristol Rovers.
- Oldham have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Accrington Stanley.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Barnet 3–2 Oldham.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Barnet vs Oldham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barnet at 54% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Barnet vs Oldham
Barnet
- W3-1away to Bristol Rovers10 October 2026
- W3-1Fleetwood Town19 September 2026
- W2-1Accrington Stanley12 September 2026
- D3-3away to Chesterfield5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Exeter City1 September 2026
Oldham
- D0-0Accrington Stanley10 October 2026
- L1-4Salford City26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Rochdale19 September 2026
- L1-2Chesterfield12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tranmere5 September 2026
What these results say
- Barnet went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Barnet scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Barnet conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Oldham did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Oldham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 18 |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Barnet
Chance to finish in the top four · 75% today
Oldham
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Barnet vs Oldham
- 24 January 2026Barnet 3–2 OldhamLeague Two
- 27 September 2025Oldham 1–1 BarnetLeague Two
- 1 March 2025Oldham 0–3 BarnetNational League
- 9 November 2024Barnet 0–0 OldhamNational League
- 23 January 2024Oldham 2–0 BarnetNational League
- 22 November 2023Barnet 1–4 OldhamNational League
Leading scorers: Barnet and Oldham
Barnet
GoalsAssists
- C. Lakin62
- K. Tshimanga54
Oldham
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh43
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Barnet carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.13 for Oldham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for Barnet and 1.25 for Oldham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Barnet rate 0.73 in attack and 2.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Oldham rate 0.49 and 2.06.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Barnet a 39.8% chance of the title and Oldham 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barnet the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Barnet against 1.25 for Oldham. Barnet's attack/defence rating is 0.73/2.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.06 for Oldham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Barnet at home · Oldham away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Barnet 8, Oldham 9.
Barnet score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Oldham have let in 3 there.
Oldham score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Barnet have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Barnet
- at Crewe31 Oct · League Twowin 38%
Oldham
- vs Crawley Town31 Oct · League Twowin 51%
- at Shrewsbury14 Nov · League Twowin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.