Crawley Town
vs
Tranmere
League Two prediction
Our model says: Crawley Town 2–1 Tranmere
The model makes it 38% Crawley Town, 27% draw, 35% Tranmere — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Crawley Town 1.46, Tranmere 1.38.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Crawley Town and Tranmere are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Crawley Town are bottom on 5 points from 8 games; Tranmere are 13th on 12 points from 10 games — League Two.
- Crawley Town have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Chesterfield.
- Tranmere have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Rochdale.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Tranmere 2–0 Crawley Town.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Crawley Town vs Tranmere
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Crawley Town at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Crawley Town vs Tranmere
Crawley Town
- D2-2Chesterfield10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Grimsby19 September 2026
- L1-3Cheltenham12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Accrington Stanley5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Northampton1 September 2026
Tranmere
- D1-1Rochdale10 October 2026
- L2-4away to Chesterfield3 October 2026
- D1-1Walsall26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Exeter City19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Gillingham12 September 2026
What these results say
- Crawley Town did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tranmere did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Tranmere conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tranmere had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 5 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Crawley Town
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 60% today
Tranmere
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Crawley Town vs Tranmere
- 14 February 2026Tranmere 2–0 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 23 August 2025Crawley Town 0–2 TranmereLeague Two
- 23 March 2024Tranmere 1–3 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 16 September 2023Crawley Town 3–2 TranmereLeague Two
- 15 April 2023Crawley Town 2–1 TranmereLeague Two
- 28 February 2023Tranmere 1–0 Crawley TownLeague Two
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Crawley Town carry a model rating of 5.94 against 6 for Tranmere. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Crawley Town and 1.38 for Tranmere. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Crawley Town rate 0.40 in attack and 2.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tranmere rate 0.46 and 2.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Tranmere, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Crawley Town a 0% chance of the title and Tranmere 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Crawley Town the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Crawley Town against 1.38 for Tranmere. Crawley Town's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.51 for Tranmere.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Crawley Town at home · Tranmere away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Crawley Town 8, Tranmere 10.
Crawley Town score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Tranmere have let in 1 there.
Tranmere score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Crawley Town have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Crawley Town
- at Oldham31 Oct · League Twowin 23%
Tranmere
- vs Cheltenham31 Oct · League Twowin 39%
- at Fleetwood Town14 Nov · League Twowin 26%
- vs Colchester21 Nov · League Twowin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.