Bristol Rovers
vs
Swindon Town
League Two prediction
Our model says: Bristol Rovers 2–1 Swindon Town
The model makes it 45% Bristol Rovers, 26% draw, 29% Swindon Town — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bristol Rovers 1.76, Swindon Town 1.31.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bristol Rovers are 9th on 15 points from 10 games; Swindon Town are 17th on 11 points from 10 games — League Two.
- Bristol Rovers have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Barnet.
- Swindon Town have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Crewe.
- Last 6 meetings: Swindon Town 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Swindon Town 1–1 Bristol Rovers.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bristol Rovers at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town
Bristol Rovers
- L1-3Barnet10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Crewe3 October 2026
- W1-0Exeter City26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Gillingham19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Grimsby12 September 2026
Swindon Town
- L0-1Crewe10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Rochdale3 October 2026
- D1-1Accrington Stanley26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City19 September 2026
- L0-4away to York12 September 2026
What these results say
- Bristol Rovers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bristol Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swindon Town did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Swindon Town conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Swindon Town failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bristol Rovers
Chance to finish in the top four · 11% today
Swindon Town
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town
- 28 February 2026Swindon Town 1–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
- 13 December 2025Bristol Rovers 0–3 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 8 October 2024Swindon Town 4–0 Bristol RoversEFL Trophy
- 18 October 2022Bristol Rovers 3–0 Swindon TownEFL Trophy
- 22 January 2022Swindon Town 1–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
- 2 October 2021Bristol Rovers 1–3 Swindon TownLeague Two
Leading scorers: Bristol Rovers and Swindon Town
Bristol Rovers
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Swindon Town
GoalsAssists
- A. Drinan50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bristol Rovers carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.07 for Swindon Town. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Bristol Rovers and 1.31 for Swindon Town. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bristol Rovers rate 0.54 in attack and 2.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Swindon Town rate 0.47 and 2.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bristol Rovers a 1.3% chance of the title and Swindon Town 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bristol Rovers the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Bristol Rovers against 1.31 for Swindon Town. Bristol Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.54/2.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.24 for Swindon Town.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bristol Rovers at home · Swindon Town away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Bristol Rovers 10, Swindon Town 10.
Swindon Town score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Bristol Rovers have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bristol Rovers
- at Fleetwood Town31 Oct · League Twowin 32%
- vs Chesterfield14 Nov · League Twowin 36%
- at Cheltenham21 Nov · League Twowin 35%
Swindon Town
- vs Rotherham31 Oct · League Twowin 37%
- vs Grimsby14 Nov · League Twowin 33%
- at Newport County21 Nov · League Twowin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.