Cheltenham
vs
Newport County
League Two prediction
Our model says: Cheltenham 2–1 Newport County
The model makes it 43% Cheltenham, 26% draw, 31% Newport County — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cheltenham 1.72, Newport County 1.41.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Cheltenham are 8th on 15 points from 10 games; Newport County are 12th on 13 points from 10 games — League Two.
- Cheltenham have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Salford City.
- Newport County are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Colchester.
- Last 6 meetings: Cheltenham 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Cheltenham 1–0 Newport County.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cheltenham vs Newport County
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cheltenham at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cheltenham vs Newport County
Cheltenham
- L0-2Salford City10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Accrington Stanley3 October 2026
- W2-1Chesterfield26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Colchester19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Crawley Town12 September 2026
Newport County
- W1-0Colchester10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gillingham3 October 2026
- W2-1Grimsby26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Accrington Stanley19 September 2026
- D1-1Fleetwood Town12 September 2026
What these results say
- Cheltenham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Newport County went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Newport County had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cheltenham
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
Newport County
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cheltenham vs Newport County
- 18 April 2026Cheltenham 1–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 18 October 2025Newport County 0–2 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 22 February 2025Newport County 0–3 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 3 September 2024Newport County 1–2 CheltenhamEFL Trophy
- 10 August 2024Cheltenham 3–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 10 October 2023Cheltenham 0–2 Newport CountyEFL Trophy
Leading scorers: Cheltenham and Newport County
Cheltenham
GoalsAssists
- C. McCann70
- A. Weimann42
- J. Evans32
Newport County
GoalsAssists
- S. Gwengwe50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cheltenham carry a model rating of 6.08 against 6.06 for Newport County. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Cheltenham and 1.41 for Newport County. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cheltenham rate 0.53 in attack and 2.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newport County rate 0.46 and 2.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cheltenham a 0.5% chance of the title and Newport County 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cheltenham the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Cheltenham against 1.41 for Newport County. Cheltenham's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.24 for Newport County.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cheltenham at home · Newport County away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Cheltenham 10, Newport County 10.
Cheltenham score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Newport County have let in 1 there.
Newport County score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Cheltenham have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Cheltenham
- at Tranmere31 Oct · League Twowin 36%
- at Exeter City14 Nov · League Twowin 25%
- vs Bristol Rovers21 Nov · League Twowin 40%
Newport County
- vs Chesterfield30 Oct · League Twowin 32%
- at Crewe14 Nov · League Twowin 24%
- vs Swindon Town21 Nov · League Twowin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.