Barcelona
vs
Alaves
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Barcelona 2–0 Alaves
The model makes it 72% Barcelona, 17% draw, 11% Alaves — fair odds of 1.39, 5.88 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Barcelona 2.80, Alaves 0.81.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Barcelona are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Barcelona are top on 24 points from 8 games; Alaves are 7th on 11 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Barcelona are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 5-2 win away to Real Betis.
- Alaves are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Atletico Madrid.
- Last 6 meetings: Barcelona 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 May 2026, ended Alaves 1–0 Barcelona.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Barcelona vs Alaves
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barcelona at 72% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Barcelona vs Alaves
Barcelona
- W5-2away to Real Betis17 October 2026
- W3-0Getafe10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Sevilla19 September 2026
- W7-2Racing Santander16 September 2026
- W4-2away to Levante13 September 2026
Alaves
- L1-2Atletico Madrid10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Athletic Club19 September 2026
- L0-1Valencia15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Racing Santander12 September 2026
- W5-2Osasuna6 September 2026
What these results say
- Barcelona won every one of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Barcelona had three goals or more.
- Alaves failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alaves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 7 | +27 | 24 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Barcelona vs Alaves
- 13 May 2026Alaves 1–0 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 29 November 2025Barcelona 3–1 AlavesLa Liga
- 2 February 2025Barcelona 1–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 6 October 2024Alaves 0–3 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 3 February 2024Alaves 1–3 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 12 November 2023Barcelona 2–1 AlavesLa Liga
Leading scorers: Barcelona and Alaves
Barcelona
GoalsAssists
- Raphinha123
- Lamine Yamal75
- Fermín42
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Barcelona carry a model rating of 7.32 against 6.84 for Alaves. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.80 goals for Barcelona and 0.81 for Alaves. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Barcelona rate 1.78 in attack and 0.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alaves rate 0.94 and 0.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Barcelona a 65.6% chance of the title and Alaves 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barcelona the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Barcelona against 0.81 for Alaves. Barcelona's attack/defence rating is 1.78/0.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.97 for Alaves.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Barcelona at home · Alaves away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Barcelona 8, Alaves 8.
Barcelona score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Alaves have let in 2 there.
Alaves score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Barcelona have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Barcelona
- vs Aston Villa3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 70%
- at Atletico Madrid8 Nov · La Ligawin 39%
- vs Villarreal22 Nov · La Ligawin 64%
Alaves
- at Sevilla6 Nov · La Ligawin 30%
- vs Deportivo La Coruna22 Nov · La Ligawin 45%
- at Real Madrid29 Nov · La Ligawin 12%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.