Nyiregyhaza
vs
Paks
NB I prediction
The model makes it 26% Nyiregyhaza, 20% draw, 54% Paks — fair odds of 3.85, 5.00 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Nyiregyhaza 1.73, Paks 2.48.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Nyiregyhaza
- L0-1away to Debreceni VSC9 August 2026
- L0-4away to Gyori ETO FC2 August 2026
- W2-1Ujpest24 July 2026
Paks
- D2-2Budapest Honved9 August 2026
- L2-5away to Zalaegerszegi TE3 August 2026
- W4-2Ferencvarosi TC26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nyiregyhaza | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 7 | Paks | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Nyiregyhaza vs Paks
- 11 April 2026Nyiregyhaza 2–0 PaksNB I
- 20 December 2025Paks 2–1 NyiregyhazaNB I
- 20 September 2025Nyiregyhaza 1–1 PaksNB I
- 5 April 2025Paks 2–0 NyiregyhazaNB I
- 29 November 2024Nyiregyhaza 4–2 PaksNB I
- 18 August 2024Paks 2–1 NyiregyhazaNB I
Leading scorers
Nyiregyhaza
No league goals recorded yet.
Paks
- J. Szalai4 goals1 assists
- M. Pető3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nyiregyhaza carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.58 for Paks. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Nyiregyhaza W-L-L; Paks W-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Nyiregyhaza and 2.48 for Paks. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nyiregyhaza rate 0.37 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paks rate 1.13 and 2.48.
That points to 79% for over two and a half goals and 76% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paks the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Nyiregyhaza against 2.48 for Paks. Nyiregyhaza's attack/defence rating is 0.37/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/2.48 for Paks.