AZ Alkmaar
vs
Twente
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Twente
The model makes it 40% AZ Alkmaar, 28% draw, 32% Twente — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 1.51, Twente 1.28.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- AZ Alkmaar are 3rd on 19 points from 8 games; Twente are 4th on 17 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Feyenoord.
- Twente are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Fortuna Sittard.
- Last 6 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended AZ Alkmaar 2–2 Twente.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AZ Alkmaar vs Twente
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AZ Alkmaar at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AZ Alkmaar vs Twente
AZ Alkmaar
- L0-2away to Feyenoord10 October 2026
- W1-0Telstar20 September 2026
- D1-1Willem II11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Heerenveen6 September 2026
- W5-2GO Ahead Eagles29 August 2026
Twente
- D1-1away to Fortuna Sittard10 October 2026
- W3-2PSV Eindhoven20 September 2026
- W2-0ADO Den Haag12 September 2026
- W1-0Telstar9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Groningen6 September 2026
What these results say
- AZ Alkmaar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Twente went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Twente scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
AZ Alkmaar
Chance to finish in the top four · 65% today
Twente
Chance to finish in the top four · 49% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: AZ Alkmaar vs Twente
- 3 May 2026AZ Alkmaar 2–2 TwenteEredivisie
- 3 February 2026AZ Alkmaar 2–1 TwenteKNVB Beker
- 30 November 2025Twente 1–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 25 May 2025AZ Alkmaar 3–2 TwenteEredivisie
- 14 May 2025Twente 2–3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 21 December 2024AZ Alkmaar 1–0 TwenteEredivisie
Leading scorers: AZ Alkmaar and Twente
AZ Alkmaar
GoalsAssists
- R. Daal40
- M. Meerdink32
Twente
GoalsAssists
- W. Weghorst42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AZ Alkmaar carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.95 for Twente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.28 for Twente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AZ Alkmaar rate 1.00 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Twente rate 0.98 and 0.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AZ Alkmaar a 6.3% chance of the title and Twente 3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AZ Alkmaar the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar against 1.28 for Twente. AZ Alkmaar's attack/defence rating is 1/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/0.82 for Twente.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AZ Alkmaar at home · Twente away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AZ AlkmaarTwente
AZ Alkmaar are 3rd after 8 Eredivisie matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Twente are 4th after 8 (between 3rd and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: AZ Alkmaar 8, Twente 8.
Twente score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); AZ Alkmaar have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
AZ Alkmaar
- at Ajax31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 27%
- vs Juventus5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 30%
Twente
- at Excelsior1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 45%
- vs Pafos5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.