Stade Brestois 29
vs
Lyon
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Stade Brestois 29 1–2 Lyon
The model makes it 31% Stade Brestois 29, 27% draw, 42% Lyon — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.31, Lyon 1.61.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Lyon: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Stade Brestois 29's rating is built from 42 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Lyon's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 680 matches.
Key facts
- Stade Brestois 29 are 11th on 9 points from 8 games; Lyon are top on 14 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- Stade Brestois 29 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Nice.
- Lyon have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Nice.
- Last 6 meetings: Lyon 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 January 2026, ended Lyon 2–1 Stade Brestois 29.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lyon at 42% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon
Stade Brestois 29
Ligue 1
- L1-2Nice23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lille17 October 2026
- W5-1Angers10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Auxerre20 September 2026
- L0-1Paris Saint Germain13 September 2026
Lyon
Ligue 1
- W2-1Nice18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Lens9 October 2026
- W4-0Rennes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Paris FC12 September 2026
- W3-1Auxerre4 September 2026
What these results say
- Stade Brestois 29 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stade Brestois 29 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stade Brestois 29 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lyon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lyon had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 9 |
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon
- 18 January 2026Lyon 2–1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 2 November 2025Stade Brestois 29 0–0 LyonLigue 1
- 2 March 2025Lyon 2–1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 11 January 2025Stade Brestois 29 2–1 LyonLigue 1
- 14 April 2024Lyon 4–3 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 23 September 2023Stade Brestois 29 1–0 LyonLigue 1
Leading scorers: Stade Brestois 29 and Lyon
Stade Brestois 29
GoalsAssists
- K. Doumbia41
- L. Ajorque31
- P. Mboup21
Lyon
GoalsAssists
- E. Nuamah31
- Z. Athekame23
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Stade Brestois 29 carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.96 for Lyon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.61 for Lyon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stade Brestois 29 rate 0.94 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lyon rate 1.03 and 0.83.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stade Brestois 29 a 0% chance of the title and Lyon 5.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lyon the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.61 for Lyon. Stade Brestois 29's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/0.83 for Lyon.
How the model reaches 42% for Lyon to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lyon to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Stade Brestois 29's ratings add 5 points and Lyon's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Stade Brestois 29's ratings37%+5
- Lyon's ratings42%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stade Brestois 29 at home · Lyon away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Stade Brestois 29Lyon
Stade Brestois 29 are 11th after 8 Ligue 1 matches (between 4th and 11th so far); Lyon are 1st after 7 (between 1st and 3rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Stade Brestois 29 8, Lyon 7.
Lyon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Stade Brestois 29 have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Stade Brestois 29
- at Strasbourg21 Nov · Ligue 1win 29%
- vs Paris FC27 Nov · Ligue 1win 29%
- at Rennes5 Dec · Ligue 1win 27%
- vs Estac Troyes12 Dec · Ligue 1win 60%
Lyon
- at Lille21 Nov · Ligue 1win 27%
- vs Lillestrom26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 61%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.