Angers
vs
Nice
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Angers 0–1 Nice
The model makes it 34% Angers, 29% draw, 37% Nice — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Angers 1.22, Nice 1.32.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Angers and Nice are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Angers's rating is built from 41 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Nice's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 680 matches.
Key facts
- Angers are 15th on 7 points from 7 games; Nice are 9th on 11 points from 8 games — Ligue 1.
- Angers have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat at home to Marseille.
- Nice have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Stade Brestois 29.
- Last 6 meetings: Nice 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Angers 0–2 Nice.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Angers vs Nice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nice at 37% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Angers vs Nice
Angers
Ligue 1
- L2-5Marseille18 October 2026
- L1-5away to Stade Brestois 2910 October 2026
- W2-0Estac Troyes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Le Havre12 September 2026
- L1-2Rennes6 September 2026
Nice
Ligue 1
- W2-1away to Stade Brestois 2923 October 2026
- L1-2away to Lyon18 October 2026
- W2-1Strasbourg11 October 2026
- W2-1Lille20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Auxerre12 September 2026
What these results say
- Angers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Angers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Nice had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Angers vs Nice
- 14 March 2026Angers 0–2 NiceLigue 1
- 7 December 2025Nice 0–1 AngersLigue 1
- 20 April 2025Nice 2–1 AngersLigue 1
- 1 September 2024Angers 1–4 NiceLigue 1
- 2 April 2023Angers 1–1 NiceLigue 1
- 18 September 2022Nice 0–1 AngersLigue 1
Leading scorers: Angers and Nice
Angers
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Nice
GoalsAssists
- E. Wahi31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Angers carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.7 for Nice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Angers and 1.32 for Nice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Angers rate 0.71 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nice rate 0.74 and 1.02.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nice the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Angers against 1.32 for Nice. Angers's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.02 for Nice.
How the model reaches 37% for Nice to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Nice to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Angers's ratings add 16 points and Nice's ratings take away 11 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Angers's ratings48%+16
- Nice's ratings37%−11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Angers at home · Nice away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AngersNice
Angers are 15th after 7 Ligue 1 matches (between 6th and 15th so far); Nice are 9th after 8 (between 6th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Angers 7, Nice 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Angers
- at Paris FC22 Nov · Ligue 1win 13%
- vs Lens28 Nov · Ligue 1win 22%
- at Monaco5 Dec · Ligue 1win 13%
Nice
- vs Paris Saint Germain21 Nov · Ligue 1win 18%
- vs Estac Troyes28 Nov · Ligue 1win 53%
- at Marseille5 Dec · Ligue 1win 19%
- vs Lens12 Dec · Ligue 1win 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.