Kisvarda FC
vs
Paks
NB I prediction
Our model says: Kisvarda FC 2–1 Paks
The model makes it 56% Kisvarda FC, 24% draw, 20% Paks — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Kisvarda FC 2.53, Paks 1.06.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Kisvarda FC vs Paks
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Kisvarda FC wins, grey are draws, red are Paks wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kisvarda FC at 56% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kisvarda FC vs Paks
Kisvarda FC
- W2-1away to MTK Budapest5 September 2026
- D1-1Gyori ETO FC30 August 2026
- D0-0Debreceni VSC23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Nyiregyhaza15 August 2026
- L2-4Ujpest8 August 2026
Paks
- L2-4Debreceni VSC5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Nyiregyhaza29 August 2026
- W2-0Ujpest21 August 2026
- L2-3away to Puskas Academy16 August 2026
- D2-2Budapest Honved9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Paks | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kisvarda FC vs Paks
- 28 February 2026Kisvarda FC 2–1 PaksNB I
- 8 November 2025Paks 5–3 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 3 August 2025Kisvarda FC 1–5 PaksNB I
- 2 April 2025Kisvarda FC 0–1 PaksMagyar Kupa
- 18 May 2024Paks 2–1 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 23 April 2024Paks 2–1 Kisvarda FCMagyar Kupa
Leading scorers: Kisvarda FC and Paks
Kisvarda FC
- C. Herc3 goals
- M. Matanović2 goals1 assists
Paks
- J. Szalai6 goals1 assists
- M. Pető3 goals
- Z. Haraszti2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kisvarda FC carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.22 for Paks. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.53 goals for Kisvarda FC and 1.06 for Paks. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kisvarda FC rate 0.58 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paks rate 0.69 and 2.68.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kisvarda FC a 4.8% chance of the title and Paks 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kisvarda FC the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Kisvarda FC against 1.06 for Paks. Kisvarda FC's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/2.68 for Paks.