Kisvarda FC vs Paks NB I prediction & result
Final score: Kisvarda FC 0-1 Paks.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Kisvarda FC, 25% draw, 21% Paks — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Hungarian NB I predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kisvarda FC at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kisvarda FC vs Paks
Line-ups
- 23I. PopovichG
- 55K. NagyD
- 42T. LippaiD
- 4M. ChlumeckýD
- 10D. SoltészD
- 11M. MatanovićM
- 24C. HercM
- 80H. MbockM
- 77Ákos ÉsikM
- 99T. YordanovF
- 14B. MelnykF
- 29B. BíróF
- 18K. KörmendiM
- 1M. KovácsG
- 27J. MešanovićF
- 86S. NovothnyF
- 6Maxim OsztrovkaM
- 25B. ŠerbečićD
- 70L. SzőrM
- 22A. YougaM
- 28M. GyetvánG
- 6M. GyőrfiD
- 24B. LenzsérD
- 15C. BelényesiD
- 5B. VécseiD
- 14E. SilyeD
- 17M. PetőM
- 21K. PappM
- 8B. BaloghM
- 10Z. HarasztiM
- 7J. SzalaiF
- 12G. VasD
- 29B. TóthF
- 1Á. KovácsikG
- 19K. HorváthM
- 9J. HahnF
- 30J. SzabóD
- 22J. WindeckerM
- 16B. WiesnerF
- 20M. SimuțD
Form going into Kisvarda FC vs Paks
Kisvarda FC
NB I
- W2-1away to MTK Budapest5 September 2026
Paks
NB I
- L2-4Debreceni VSC5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kisvarda FC | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 4 | Paks | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kisvarda FC vs Paks
- 28 February 2026Kisvarda FC 2–1 PaksNB I
- 8 November 2025Paks 5–3 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 3 August 2025Kisvarda FC 1–5 PaksNB I
- 2 April 2025Kisvarda FC 0–1 PaksMagyar Kupa
- 18 May 2024Paks 2–1 Kisvarda FCNB I
Leading scorers: Kisvarda FC and Paks
Kisvarda FC
GoalsAssists
- C. Herc30
Paks
GoalsAssists
- J. Szalai61
- M. Pető41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Paks won 1–0 at Kisvarda FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Kisvarda FC at 54% and given a win for Paks 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Bence Lenzsér 71' for Paks.
How the call on Kisvarda FC v Paks has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 51% / 24% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is Paks's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Kisvarda FC win54%▲ +3
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Paks win21%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.