Regular Season - 12 · 29 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Atromitos vs Panathinaikos Super League 1 prediction

Peristeri Stadium, Athens

Our model says: Atromitos 0–1 Panathinaikos

The model makes it 20% Atromitos, 27% draw, 53% Panathinaikos — fair odds of 5.00, 3.70 and 1.89.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).

Expected goals: Atromitos 0.81, Panathinaikos 1.66.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Panathinaikos are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Atromitos's rating is built from 45 Greek Super League matches and Panathinaikos's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 541 matches.

Key facts

Atromitos are 12th on 6 points from 9 games; Panathinaikos are top on 27 points from 10 games — Super League 1.
Atromitos have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to OFI.
Panathinaikos are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Iraklis 1908.
Last 6 meetings: Panathinaikos 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 January 2026, ended Atromitos 0–0 Panathinaikos.

More Greek Super League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Atromitos vs Panathinaikos

46%

Both teams to score

45%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Atromitos win Draw Panathinaikos win

0–113%
1–112%
0–212%
1–29%
0–09%
0–36%
1–06%

Scores read Atromitos first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Panathinaikos at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Atromitos vs Panathinaikos

Atromitos

Super League 1

D0-0away to OFI8 November 2026
W3-0Volos NFC2 November 2026
L1-3away to Aris Thessalonikis25 October 2026
L1-2away to Asteras Tripolis10 October 2026
L1-2Kifisia19 September 2026

Panathinaikos

Super League 1

W2-1away to Iraklis 19088 November 2026
W2-0AEK Athens FC1 November 2026
W1-0away to Volos NFC25 October 2026
W5-1Asteras Tripolis18 October 2026
L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus11 October 2026

What these results say

Atromitos failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Atromitos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Atromitos had three goals or more.
Panathinaikos won 4 of these 5 matches.
Panathinaikos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League 1 table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
12	Atromitos	9	1	3	5	9	12	-3	6
1	Panathinaikos	10	9	0	1	22	5	+17	27

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Atromitos vs Panathinaikos

25 January 2026Atromitos 0–0 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
29 October 2025Atromitos 1–2 PanathinaikosCup
5 October 2025Panathinaikos 1–0 AtromitosSuper League 1
9 March 2025Atromitos 1–1 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
8 January 2025Panathinaikos 2–1 AtromitosCup
4 December 2024Atromitos 1–2 PanathinaikosCup

Leading scorers: Atromitos and Panathinaikos

Atromitos

No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Panathinaikos

GoalsAssists

A. Tetteh51
C. Dessers40
V. Taborda31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atromitos a 0% chance of the title and Panathinaikos 62%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Atromitos Panathinaikos

0.74 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.13

1.23 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.74

0.81 Model expected goals (this match) 1.66

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Panathinaikos the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Atromitos against 1.66 for Panathinaikos. Atromitos's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/0.74 for Panathinaikos.

Atromitos carry a model rating of 6.6 against 7.07 for Panathinaikos.

How the model reaches 53% for Panathinaikos to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Panathinaikos to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Atromitos's ratings add 11 points and Panathinaikos's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 53%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage31%−5
Both sides at this match's level30%−1
Atromitos's ratings41%+11
Panathinaikos's ratings53%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

AtromitosModelPanathinaikos

Over 1.5 goals

78%

7 of 9 games

71%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

56%

5 of 9 games

45%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

11%

1 of 9 games

24%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

67%

6 of 9 games

46%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

AtromitosPanathinaikos

9Matches10

1W 3D 5LRecord9W 0D 1L

9 1.0 per gameGoals scored22 2.2 per game

12 1.3 per gameGoals conceded5 0.5 per game

2 of 9Clean sheets5 of 10

2 of 9Failed to score1 of 10

–Penalties scored2 of 3

24 2.7 per gameYellow cards24 2.4 per game

0Red cards2

4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape4-2-3-1 7×

Atromitos at home · Panathinaikos away

4Played5

1W 1D 2LRecord4W 0D 1L

6–5Goals for – against6–2

1 of 4Clean sheets3 of 5

League matches only, Super League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

AtromitosPanathinaikos

Atromitos are 12th after 9 Super League 1 matches (between 9th and 13th so far); Panathinaikos are 1st after 10 (between 1st and 6th). Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Super League 1 matches this season: Atromitos 9, Panathinaikos 10.

Atromitos scored 240121

Panathinaikos conceded 111111

Atromitos score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Panathinaikos have let in 1 there.

Panathinaikos scored 224525

Atromitos conceded 231032

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Atromitos

at Panetolikos7 Dec · Super League 1win 42%
vs Olympiakos Piraeus13 Dec · Super League 1win 21%
at Kifisia19 Dec · Super League 1win 32%

Panathinaikos

vs Aris Thessalonikis6 Dec · Super League 1win 65%
at SC Freiburg10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
at PAOK13 Dec · Super League 1win 38%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.