Malaga
vs
Deportivo La Coruna
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 35% Malaga, 26% draw, 39% Deportivo La Coruna — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Malaga 1.42, Deportivo La Coruna 1.49.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna
- 4 April 2026Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 MalagaSegunda División
- 12 October 2025Malaga 3–0 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
- 11 January 2025Malaga 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
- 6 October 2024Deportivo La Coruna 0–0 MalagaSegunda División
- 8 July 2020Malaga 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
- 20 October 2019Deportivo La Coruna 0–2 MalagaSegunda División
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Malaga carry a model rating of 7.03 against 7.16 for Deportivo La Coruna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Malaga and 1.49 for Deportivo La Coruna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Malaga rate 0.72 in attack and 0.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo La Coruna rate 1.77 and 1.04.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 302 correct results out of 627 settled predictions (48%), with 61 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo La Coruna the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Malaga against 1.49 for Deportivo La Coruna. Malaga's attack/defence rating is 0.72/0.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.77/1.04 for Deportivo La Coruna.