Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Malaga 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Malaga, 30% draw, 14% Deportivo La Coruna — fair odds of 1.79, 3.33 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Malaga at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. HerreroG
- 3C. PugaD
- 15A. RecioD
- 4E. GalileaD
- 31RafitaD
- 23I. MerinoM
- 19J. CruzM
- 8C. DotorM
- 22D. LorenzoM
- 11J. MunozM
- 9ChupeF
- 13C. LopezG
- 5A. PastorD
- 12J. SalinasD
- 10D. LarrubiaF
- 14R. RodriguezM
- 18P. MartinezM
- 6R. EnriquezM
- 7H. AbaidaF
- 28J. OtunencheM
- 13L. RomanG
- 23X. NavarroD
- 4L. NoubiD
- 15M. LoureiroD
- 12G. QuagliataD
- 16L. AmatucciM
- 21M. SorianoM
- 2A. AltimiraM
- 19Cruz LuismiM
- 18J. AspM
- 7P. AubameyangF
- 1G. ParrenoG
- 25A. FernandezG
- 22B. EdeD
- 24AngelinoD
- 3A. ComasD
- 14R. RodriguezM
- 8D. VillaresM
- 34T. GijselhartM
- 9Z. EddahchouriF
Form going into Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna
Malaga
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Atletico Madrid19 August 2026
Deportivo La Coruna
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Elche17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna
- 4 April 2026Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 MalagaSegunda División
- 12 October 2025Malaga 3–0 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
- 11 January 2025Malaga 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
- 6 October 2024Deportivo La Coruna 0–0 MalagaSegunda División
- 8 July 2020Malaga 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Malaga and Deportivo La Coruna
Malaga
GoalsAssists
- Adrián Niño Heredia51
Deportivo La Coruna
GoalsAssists
- P. Aubameyang52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Malaga and Deportivo La Coruna drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Malaga at 56% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: P. Aubameyang 21' for Deportivo La Coruna, Chupe (penalty) 34' for Malaga. On expected goals it finished 1.97–1.11.