Regular Season - 2 · 24 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Osasuna vs Levante La Liga prediction

Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona

The model makes it 46% Osasuna, 23% draw, 31% Levante — fair odds of 2.17, 4.35 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Osasuna 1.90, Levante 1.55.

Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

67%
Both teams to score
67%
Over 2.5 goals
33%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 10%2-1 9%1-2 7%

Head-to-head: Osasuna vs Levante

  • 8 May 2026Levante 3–2 OsasunaLa Liga
  • 8 December 2025Osasuna 2–0 LevanteLa Liga
  • 19 March 2022Osasuna 3–1 LevanteLa Liga
  • 5 December 2021Levante 0–0 OsasunaLa Liga
  • 14 February 2021Levante 0–1 OsasunaLa Liga
  • 27 September 2020Osasuna 1–3 LevanteLa Liga

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Osasuna carry a model rating of 6.95 against 7 for Levante. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for Osasuna and 1.55 for Levante. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Osasuna rate 1.07 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levante rate 1.27 and 0.94.

That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 302 correct results out of 627 settled predictions (48%), with 61 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Osasuna the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.9 expected goals for Osasuna against 1.55 for Levante. Osasuna's attack/defence rating is 1.07/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.27/0.94 for Levante.