Getafe
vs
Racing Santander
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 48% Getafe, 22% draw, 30% Racing Santander — fair odds of 2.08, 4.55 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Getafe 2.11, Racing Santander 1.67.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Getafe vs Racing Santander
- 1 May 2012Getafe 1–1 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 21 January 2012Racing Santander 1–2 GetafeLa Liga
- 20 February 2011Getafe 0–1 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 26 September 2010Racing Santander 0–1 GetafeLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Getafe carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.96 for Racing Santander. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Getafe and 1.67 for Racing Santander. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Getafe rate 0.78 in attack and 0.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Racing Santander rate 1.53 and 1.43.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Getafe the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Getafe against 1.67 for Racing Santander. Getafe's attack/defence rating is 0.78/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.53/1.43 for Racing Santander.