Atletico Madrid
vs
Deportivo La Coruna
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Atletico Madrid 2–0 Deportivo La Coruna
The model makes it 63% Atletico Madrid, 21% draw, 16% Deportivo La Coruna — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 2.35, Deportivo La Coruna 0.96.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Atletico Madrid are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Atletico Madrid are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games; Deportivo La Coruna are 8th on 10 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Alaves.
- Deportivo La Coruna are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Real Sociedad.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico Madrid 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 January 2026, ended Deportivo La Coruna 0–1 Atletico Madrid.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Madrid at 63% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
Atletico Madrid
- W2-1away to Alaves10 October 2026
- W2-1Real Madrid20 September 2026
- W4-0Osasuna16 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Sociedad13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026
Deportivo La Coruna
- L2-3away to Real Sociedad11 October 2026
- D1-1Real Betis20 September 2026
- L0-1Sevilla16 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Villarreal5 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Atletico Madrid had three goals or more.
- Atletico Madrid won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 19 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atletico Madrid
Chance to finish in the top four · 81% today
Deportivo La Coruna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
- 13 January 2026Deportivo La Coruna 0–1 Atletico MadridCopa del Rey
- 1 April 2018Atletico Madrid 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 4 November 2017Deportivo La Coruna 0–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 2 March 2017Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 25 September 2016Atletico Madrid 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 12 March 2016Atletico Madrid 3–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna
Atletico Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Álex Baena42
- J. David32
- Álex Grimaldo31
Deportivo La Coruna
GoalsAssists
- P. Aubameyang52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico Madrid carry a model rating of 7.13 against 6.83 for Deportivo La Coruna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.35 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.96 for Deportivo La Coruna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Madrid rate 1.39 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo La Coruna rate 0.99 and 1.04.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atletico Madrid a 5.8% chance of the title and Deportivo La Coruna 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Madrid the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Atletico Madrid against 0.96 for Deportivo La Coruna. Atletico Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.39/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.04 for Deportivo La Coruna.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Madrid at home · Deportivo La Coruna away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Atletico MadridDeportivo La Coruna
Atletico Madrid are 2nd after 8 La Liga matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Deportivo La Coruna are 8th after 8 (between 4th and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Atletico Madrid 8, Deportivo La Coruna 8.
Atletico Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Deportivo La Coruna have let in 1 there.
Deportivo La Coruna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Atletico Madrid have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Atletico Madrid
- at Levante31 Oct · La Ligawin 49%
- vs Bayern München3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 36%
- vs Barcelona8 Nov · La Ligawin 34%
Deportivo La Coruna
- vs Osasuna2 Nov · La Ligawin 53%
- at Espanyol7 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
- at Alaves22 Nov · La Ligawin 29%
- vs Barcelona29 Nov · La Ligawin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.