22 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Eldense vs Cadiz Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat, Elda
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Eldense 2-2 Cadiz.

Before kick-off the model made it 18% Eldense, 24% draw, 58% Cadiz — fair odds of 5.56, 4.17 and 1.72.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cadiz at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Eldense3%Draw92%Cadiz5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

37'
Damián Rodríguez
⚽M. Carmonaassist: J. Martin
49'
54'
⚽I. Sanchezassist: J. de la Rosa
60'
🔁N. Ukwuijeout: B. Kovacevic
60'
🔁J. Gonzalezout: R. Kouame
🔁J. Rastrojoout: B. Calvo
62'
🔁J. Martinout: J. Martinez
62'
⚽G. Macho
70'
73'
🔁I. Sanchezout: V. Kopotun
73'
🔁J. de la Rosaout: B. Vazquez
74'
⚽A. Cordero
77'
Bojan Kovačević
Mariano Carmona
82'
🔁G. Machoout: Rodri
83'
88'
Rominigue Kouamé
Álex Serradell
90+3'
🔁M. Carmonaout: C. Guirao
90'
90+2'
🔁M. Riveraout: G. Gocholeishvili

Match stats — Eldense vs Cadiz

48%Possession52%
10Shots8
6On target6
7Corners3
0.45xG1.74

Goals against chances

Eldense2 from 0.45 xGmore than the chances were worth
Cadiz2 from 1.74 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Eldense 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. VilaG
  • 17J. ClementeD
  • 5A. G. SerradellD
  • 4F. SmandD
  • 21D. RuizD
  • 14J. SmithM
  • 18G. MachoM
  • 10FidelM
  • 23J. MartinM
  • 7J. RastrojoM
  • 9M. CarmonaF
Substitutes
  • 36D. Bernabeu
  • 13JuanpaG
  • 26I. CarbonellD
  • 22J. YandaD
  • 34J. OlaizolaD
  • 6B. CalvoM
  • 24J. MartinezM
  • 8M. BustilloM
  • 15C. GuiraoM
Coach: Claudio Barragan
Cadiz 3-1-4-2
  • 13J. EzkietaG
  • 31N. UkwuijeD
  • 4J. CastroD
  • 33M. RiveraD
  • 23D. RodriguezM
  • 27J. Diaz PeregrinaM
  • 11J. de la RosaM
  • 5J. GonzalezM
  • 16A. CorderoM
  • 24I. SanchezF
  • 19IzetaF
Substitutes
  • 26R. DominguezG
  • 1D. GilG
  • 14B. KovacevicD
  • 12G. GocholeishviliD
  • 2B. de JesusD
  • 15K. ToibibouD
  • 32R. RosadoD
  • 18R. KouameM
  • 28D. A. Zarate HidalgoM
Coach: Albert Celades

Form going into Eldense vs Cadiz

Eldense

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Almeria17 August 2026

Cadiz

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Celta de Vigo II15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Eldense134271319-614
20Cadiz132471618-210

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Eldense vs Cadiz

  • 18 January 2025Eldense 1–4 CadizSegunda División
  • 4 December 2024Cadiz 0–1 EldenseCopa del Rey
  • 28 September 2024Cadiz 1–2 EldenseSegunda División

Leading scorers: Eldense and Cadiz

Eldense

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Cadiz

GoalsAssists

  • Antonio Cordero52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Eldense and Cadiz drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Cadiz at 58% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Carmona 49' for Eldense, I. Sanchez 54' for Cadiz, G. Macho 70' for Eldense, A. Cordero 74' for Cadiz. On expected goals it finished 0.45–1.74.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.