Baltika
vs
Lokomotiv
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 60% Baltika, 20% draw, 20% Lokomotiv — fair odds of 1.67, 5.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Baltika 2.30, Lokomotiv 1.30.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Baltika
- L1-2Spartak Moscow16 August 2026
- W2-0away to Krylia Sovetov8 August 2026
- W2-1Dynamo1 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA Moscow24 July 2026
Lokomotiv
- L2-3away to CSKA Moscow22 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC Orenburg14 August 2026
- D0-0Akron8 August 2026
- L1-2away to Dinamo Makhachkala1 August 2026
- D1-1Akhmat26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Baltika | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Baltika carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.21 for Lokomotiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Baltika L-W-W-L; Lokomotiv D-L-D-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.30 goals for Baltika and 1.30 for Lokomotiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Baltika rate 0.60 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lokomotiv rate 0.56 and 2.03.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Baltika the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.3 expected goals for Baltika against 1.3 for Lokomotiv. Baltika's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.03 for Lokomotiv.