Baltika vs Lokomotiv Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Baltika 0-1 Lokomotiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Baltika, 28% draw, 25% Lokomotiv — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Baltika at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Baltika vs Lokomotiv
Line-ups
- 1E. LatyshonokG
- 22M. BeveevD
- 2S. VaratynovD
- 24L. MouyokoloD
- 21E. AndersonD
- 4N. GassamaD
- 42V. PospelovM
- 8A. MendelM
- 5A. MouridM
- 11N. TitkovM
- 9C. OfforF
- 81I. KukushkinG
- 44E. LyubakovG
- 18F. MoufiD
- 77E. CivicD
- 3I. KirschD
- 68M. RyadnoD
- 19M. ShnaptsevD
- 7K. ShiltsovM
- 73M. PetrovM
- 1A. MitryushkinG
- 85E. MorozovD
- 5G. NyamsiD
- 23C. MontesD
- 3Lucas FassonD
- 6S. BabkinM
- 75I. EremeevM
- 19A. RudenkoM
- 7Z. BakaevM
- 9S. PinyaevM
- 77A. MostovoyF
- 22I. LantratovG
- 16D. VeselovG
- 24M. NenakhovD
- 59E. PogostnovD
- 8A. KovalenkoM
- 88M. ShchetininM
- 47D. GodyaevM
- 74D. ChevardinD
- 27N. KomlichenkoF
Form going into Baltika vs Lokomotiv
Baltika
- W3-0away to Rodina Moskva30 August 2026
Lokomotiv
- L0-1Dynamo29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 12 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Baltika vs Lokomotiv
- 6 September 2026Baltika 0–1 LokomotivPremier League
- 10 May 2026Lokomotiv 1–0 BaltikaPremier League
- 23 October 2025Baltika 1–2 LokomotivCup
- 16 August 2025Baltika 1–1 LokomotivPremier League
- 13 August 2025Lokomotiv 2–0 BaltikaCup
- 6 July 2024Lokomotiv 4–1 BaltikaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Baltika and Lokomotiv
Baltika
GoalsAssists
- B. Gil41
Lokomotiv
GoalsAssists
- N. Komlichenko31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.