Everton
vs
Manchester United
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 29% Everton, 21% draw, 50% Manchester United — fair odds of 3.45, 4.76 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Everton 1.69, Manchester United 2.22.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Everton
- W2-0Crystal Palace22 August 2026
Manchester United
- L0-2away to Hull City22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Everton vs Manchester United
- 23 February 2026Everton 0–1 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 24 November 2025Manchester United 0–1 EvertonPremier League
- 3 August 2025Manchester United 2–2 EvertonPremier League - Summer Series
- 22 February 2025Everton 2–2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 1 December 2024Manchester United 4–0 EvertonPremier League
- 9 March 2024Manchester United 2–0 EvertonPremier League
The two sides
Everton carry a model rating of 6.87 against 7.16 for Manchester United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Everton W; Manchester United L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Everton and 2.22 for Manchester United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Everton rate 1.09 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Manchester United rate 1.51 and 0.82.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Everton, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester United the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Everton against 2.22 for Manchester United. Everton's attack/defence rating is 1.09/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.51/0.82 for Manchester United.