Antwerp
vs
SK Beveren
The model makes it 74% Antwerp, 14% draw, 12% SK Beveren — fair odds of 1.35, 7.14 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Antwerp 3.41, SK Beveren 1.46.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%, under 2.5: 14%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Antwerp vs SK Beveren
- 10 November 2022SK Beveren 2–2 AntwerpCup
- 29 January 2021Antwerp 3–2 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
- 20 December 2020SK Beveren 0–3 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
- 6 December 2019SK Beveren 0–4 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
- 4 August 2019Antwerp 4–1 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
- 15 December 2018Antwerp 0–2 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
The two sides
Antwerp carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.48 for SK Beveren. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.41 goals for Antwerp and 1.46 for SK Beveren. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Antwerp rate 0.93 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SK Beveren rate 0.87 and 1.94.
That points to 86% for over two and a half goals and 74% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 4-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Antwerp the highest probability at 74%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.41 expected goals for Antwerp against 1.46 for SK Beveren. Antwerp's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.94 for SK Beveren.