Zulte Waregem
vs
Genk
The model makes it 57% Zulte Waregem, 19% draw, 24% Genk — fair odds of 1.75, 5.26 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Zulte Waregem 2.51, Genk 1.62.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Zulte Waregem vs Genk
- 17 January 2026Zulte Waregem 2–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 31 August 2025Genk 3–2 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
- 14 January 2023Genk 1–0 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
- 14 August 2022Zulte Waregem 1–4 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 6 February 2022Genk 2–0 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
- 31 October 2021Zulte Waregem 2–6 GenkJupiler Pro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zulte Waregem carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.83 for Genk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.51 goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.62 for Genk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zulte Waregem rate 1.29 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Genk rate 0.99 and 1.03.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 74% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zulte Waregem the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Zulte Waregem against 1.62 for Genk. Zulte Waregem's attack/defence rating is 1.29/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.03 for Genk.