FK Jablonec
vs
Slovácko
The model makes it 45% FK Jablonec, 28% draw, 27% Slovácko — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FK Jablonec 1.40, Slovácko 1.03.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FK Jablonec
- W2-0away to Pardubice2 August 2026
- W2-1Sigma Olomouc26 July 2026
Slovácko
- D1-1Artis1 August 2026
- L1-5away to Slavia Praha26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FK Jablonec | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 14 | Slovácko | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Slovácko
- 7 February 2026FK Jablonec 0–0 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 30 August 2025Slovácko 0–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 9 February 2025FK Jablonec 4–2 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 31 August 2024Slovácko 0–0 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 9 March 2024Slovácko 0–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 30 September 2023FK Jablonec 2–0 SlováckoCzech Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FK Jablonec carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.61 for Slovácko. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FK Jablonec W-W; Slovácko L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for FK Jablonec and 1.03 for Slovácko. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Jablonec rate 0.74 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slovácko rate 0.58 and 1.00.
That points to 44% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Jablonec the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for FK Jablonec against 1.03 for Slovácko. FK Jablonec's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1 for Slovácko.