Mlada Boleslav
vs
Slovácko
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 42% Mlada Boleslav, 28% draw, 30% Slovácko — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Mlada Boleslav 1.37, Slovácko 1.10.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Mlada Boleslav
- W2-0Sparta Praha8 August 2026
- D2-2away to Sigma Olomouc2 August 2026
- W4-2away to Artis27 July 2026
Slovácko
- L0-1away to FK Jablonec9 August 2026
- D1-1Artis1 August 2026
- L1-5away to Slavia Praha26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| 14 | Slovácko | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Mlada Boleslav
- J. Klíma3 goals1 assists
- M. Šubert2 goals
Slovácko
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mlada Boleslav carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.72 for Slovácko. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Mlada Boleslav W-D-W; Slovácko L-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.10 for Slovácko. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mlada Boleslav rate 0.85 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slovácko rate 0.58 and 0.85.
That points to 45% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mlada Boleslav the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav against 1.1 for Slovácko. Mlada Boleslav's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/0.85 for Slovácko.