Vizela
vs
Sporting CP B
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Vizela 1–0 Sporting CP B
The model makes it 40% Vizela, 30% draw, 30% Sporting CP B — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vizela 1.41, Sporting CP B 1.05.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Vizela are 4th on 11 points from 6 games; Sporting CP B are 3rd on 12 points from 6 games — Segunda Liga.
- Vizela are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-2 draw away to FC Porto B.
- Sporting CP B have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Lusitânia Lourosa.
- Last 4 meetings: Vizela 4 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Vizela 1–0 Sporting CP B.
All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Vizela vs Sporting CP B
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vizela at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vizela vs Sporting CP B
Vizela
- D2-2away to FC Porto B14 September 2026
- W1-0Felgueiras 19326 September 2026
- W3-0away to Torreense29 August 2026
- D0-0Amarante22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Portimonense16 August 2026
Sporting CP B
- L1-2Lusitânia Lourosa14 September 2026
- W3-1away to Feirense5 September 2026
- W2-1Farense30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Penafiel23 August 2026
- W1-0Chaves15 August 2026
What these results say
- Sporting CP B scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP B conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Vizela | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 |
| 3 | Sporting CP B | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vizela vs Sporting CP B
- 26 April 2026Vizela 1–0 Sporting CP BSegunda Liga
- 14 December 2025Sporting CP B 0–1 VizelaSegunda Liga
- 9 February 2017Vizela 2–1 Sporting CP BSegunda Liga
- 29 August 2016Sporting CP B 1–2 VizelaSegunda Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vizela carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.43 for Sporting CP B. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Vizela and 1.05 for Sporting CP B. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vizela rate 0.60 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting CP B rate 0.62 and 1.44.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sporting CP B, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vizela a 2.3% chance of the title and Sporting CP B 3.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vizela the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Vizela against 1.05 for Sporting CP B. Vizela's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.44 for Sporting CP B.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vizela at home · Sporting CP B away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Vizela 6, Sporting CP B 6.
Vizela score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Sporting CP B have let in 2 there.
Sporting CP B score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Vizela have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Vizela
- at Chaves23 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 34%
- vs Academica1 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 46%
- at AVS6 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 25%
- vs Feirense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 47%
- at Lusitânia Lourosa28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 28%
Sporting CP B
- vs Portimonense24 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 44%
- at Leixoes31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 29%
- vs Tondela8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 35%
- at União de Leiria15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 28%
- vs Amarante30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.