22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Albacete vs Real Sociedad II Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Carlos Belmonte, Albacete
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Albacete 1-2 Real Sociedad II.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Albacete, 23% draw, 18% Real Sociedad II — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Albacete at 59%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Albacete0%Draw6%Real Sociedad II94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

-5'
Lander Olasagasti
6'
⚽A. Mariezkurrenaassist: D. Diaz
Alex Rubio
23'
45'
⚽G. Gorosabelassist: J. Eceizabarrena
🔁J. Vallejoout: D. Bernabeu
46'
🔁R. Gonzalezout: M. Soberon
46'
52'
🔁D. Diazout: I. Aguirre
🔁A. Rubioout: Agus Medina
61'
61'
🔁I. Calderonout: J. Balda
61'
🔁J. Eceizabarrenaout: E. Orobengoa
65'
🔁A. Mariezkurrenaout: J. Oleaga
65'
🔁T. Carbonellout: J. Soroeta
🔁S. Ortunoout: A. Pacheco
71'
🔁L. Lopezout: T. Ingles
75'
⚽D. Bernabeuassist: Agus Medina
80'
Mario Soberón
90+2'

Match stats — Albacete vs Real Sociedad II

64%Possession36%
17Shots12
7On target6
5Corners6
2.36xG1.92

Goals against chances

Albacete1 from 2.36 xGless than the chances were worth
Real Sociedad II2 from 1.92 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Albacete 5-4-1
  • 13D. MarinoG
  • 15F. GamezD
  • 24J. VallejoD
  • 23PepeD
  • 22L. LopezD
  • 21C. NevaD
  • 10R. GonzalezM
  • 18S. OrtunoM
  • 14V. San BartolomeM
  • 17J. CorpasM
  • 19A. RubioF
Substitutes
  • 1C. MarinG
  • 2LorenzoD
  • 5J. MorenoD
  • 27D. BernabeuD
  • 4Agus MedinaM
  • 6A. PachecoM
  • 8J. VillarM
  • 33T. InglesF
  • 9M. SoberonF
Coach: Alberto Gonzalez
Real Sociedad II 4-3-3
  • 1A. FragaG
  • 2J. GarroD
  • 15I. CalderonD
  • 5K. KitaD
  • 23U. AgoteD
  • 16G. GorosabelM
  • 14T. CarbonellM
  • 21J. EceizabarrenaM
  • 7D. DiazF
  • 10A. MariezkurrenaF
  • 17L. AstiazaranF
Substitutes
  • 32L. OlasagastiG
  • 3J. BaldaD
  • 29I. RoperoD
  • 30A. Unax
  • 26B. IsasaD
  • 12J. OleagaM
  • 8I. AguirreM
  • 31O. TelletxeaM
  • 34A. AdjabengF
Coach: Ion Ansotegi

Form going into Albacete vs Real Sociedad II

Albacete

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Las Palmas16 August 2026

Real Sociedad II

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Castellón14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21Albacete133191324-1110
17Real Sociedad II133371522-712

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Albacete vs Real Sociedad II

  • 24 May 2026Albacete 3–1 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
  • 10 January 2026Real Sociedad II 0–0 AlbaceteSegunda División

The result against the call

Real Sociedad II won 2–1 at Albacete. The model had leaned towards a win for Albacete at 59% and given a win for Real Sociedad II 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: A. Mariezkurrena 6' for Real Sociedad II, G. Gorosabel 45' for Real Sociedad II, D. Bernabeu 80' for Albacete. On expected goals it finished 2.36–1.92.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.