11 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor Süper Lig prediction & result

Tupras Stadium, Istanbul
Referee: Abdullah Bugra Taskinsoy, Türkiye
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Beşiktaş 2-1 Kocaelispor.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Beşiktaş, 28% draw, 19% Kocaelispor — fair odds of 1.89, 3.57 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Beşiktaş at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Beşiktaş98%Draw2%Kocaelispor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽O. Kokcuassist: V. Cerny
18'
27'
⚽Show
29'
Tayfur Bingöl
⚽D. Vlahovic (pen)
31'
🔁V. Cernyout: I. Fakili
39'
61'
🔁G. Sousaout: R. Rivas
70'
🔁T. Bingolout: T. Gulliksen
🔁E. Topcuout: E. Agbadou
71'
🔁R. Yilmazout: K. Ouattara
71'
🔁S. Ozcanout: W. Ndidi
71'
71'
🔁D. Agyeiout: F. Aye
Leandro Trossard
78'
78'
Serhat Öztaşdelen
🔁O. Kokcuout: K. Kayra Yilmaz
84'
87'
🔁U. Yildizout: M. Cinan
87'
🔁O. Oztongaout: M. Baku

Match stats — Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor

58%Possession42%
16Shots11
6On target6
4Corners7
2.24xG1.51

Goals against chances

Beşiktaş2 from 2.24 xGabout what the chances were worth
Kocaelispor1 from 1.51 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Beşiktaş 4-1-4-1
  • 1Alexander NübelG
  • 62Amir MurilloD
  • 35Tiago DjalóD
  • 53Emirhan TopçuD
  • 33Rıdvan YılmazD
  • 6Salih ÖzcanM
  • 18Václav ČernýM
  • 21Fabio MirettiM
  • 10Orkun KökçüM
  • 19Leandro TrossardM
  • 28Dušan VlahovićF
Substitutes
  • 29İlhan FakılıF
  • 12Emmanuel AgbadouD
  • 11Kassoum OuattaraD
  • 4Wilfred NdidiM
  • 8Kartal Kayra YılmazM
  • 80Doğan AlemdarG
  • 22Taylan BulutD
  • 15Junior OlaitanM
  • 17Ernest PokuF
Kocaelispor 5-3-2
  • 83Serhat ÖztaşdelenG
  • 22Uğur Kaan YıldızD
  • 41Onur ÖztongaD
  • 5Emir OrtakayaD
  • 14ShowD
  • 11Gonçalo SousaD
  • 20Mahamadou SusohoM
  • 10Berkan KutluM
  • 75Tayfur BingölM
  • 26Metehan AltunbaşF
  • 7Dan AgyeiF
Substitutes
  • 99Rigoberto RivasF
  • 8Tobias Fjeld GulliksenM
  • 97Florian AyéF
  • 3Muharrem CinanD
  • 32Makana BakuM
  • 23Onurcan PiriG
  • 16Deniz CeylanD
  • 18Hulisi DesticiM
  • 27Ege BilimM

Form going into Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor

Beşiktaş

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Amed20 September 2026
  • W4-1Marseille17 September 2026
  • W3-0Erzurumspor FK11 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Fenerbahçe5 September 2026
  • W6-2Çorum FK31 August 2026

Kocaelispor

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Gaziantep FK19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Galatasaray13 September 2026
  • W1-0Samsunspor6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Konyaspor29 August 2026
  • W2-0Amed24 August 2026

What these results say

  • Beşiktaş scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Beşiktaş had three goals or more.
  • Beşiktaş won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kocaelispor won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kocaelispor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Kocaelispor had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Beşiktaş117132312+1122
7Kocaelispor11614139+419

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor

  • 28 February 2026Kocaelispor 0–1 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
  • 5 February 2026Kocaelispor 1–1 BeşiktaşTürkiye Kupası
  • 29 September 2025Beşiktaş 3–1 KocaelisporSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor

Beşiktaş

GoalsAssists

  • D. Vlahović90

Kocaelispor

GoalsAssists

  • B. Kutlu51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Beşiktaş beat Kocaelispor 2–1. The model had made a win for Beşiktaş its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: O. Kokcu 18' for Beşiktaş, Show 27' for Kocaelispor, D. Vlahovic (penalty) 31' for Beşiktaş. On expected goals it finished 2.24–1.51.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Beşiktaş a 62.8% chance to finish in the top four: 66.4% after a win, 59.6% after a draw, 54.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.4%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

For Kocaelispor the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.4% going in: 10.3% after a win, 6.6% after a draw, 4.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.6%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Beşiktaş v Kocaelispor has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 48% / 30% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 53% / 28% / 19%: the biggest move is Beşiktaş's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Beşiktaş win53%▲ +5
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Kocaelispor win19%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.