Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al Sadd 4-1 Al-Gharafa.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Al Sadd, 25% draw, 22% Al-Gharafa — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Sadd at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa
Al Sadd
- W6-2away to Qatar SC28 August 2026
- W3-1Al Ahli Doha22 August 2026
Al-Gharafa
- L1-3Al Shamal27 August 2026
- W2-1Al Shahaniya21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sadd | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 12 |
| 9 | Al-Gharafa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Sadd and Al-Gharafa
Al Sadd
- Roberto Firmino3 goals2 assists
- Akram Afif3 goals1 assists
- Y. Abdurisag1 goals2 assists
Al-Gharafa
- F. Magri2 goals
- F. Díaz1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.