Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al Sadd 4-1 Al-Gharafa.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Al Sadd, 25% draw, 22% Al-Gharafa — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Sadd at 53% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa
Line-ups
- 22Meshaal BarshamG
- 5Tarek SalmanD
- 2Pedro MiguelD
- 16Boualem KhoukhiD
- 6Paulo OtávioD
- 8GuilhermeM
- 33ClaudinhoM
- 23Hashim AliM
- 9Roberto FirminoM
- 30Akram AfifM
- 12Y. AbdurisagF
- 31Yousef Abdulla BaliadehG
- 18Abdulrahman Al AmeenD
- 10Hassan Al HaydosF
- 1Saad Al SheebG
- 13Abdullah Al YazidiF
- 3Y. El HannachD
- 7Mohammed WaadM
- 17Mohamed Al ManaiM
- 14Mostafa MeshaalM
- 1Khalifa AbabacarG
- 4S. SanoD
- 20Jang Hyun-SooD
- 6Dame TraoréD
- 23Saifeldeen Hassan FadlallaD
- 18Ayoub Al OuiM
- 29F. DíazM
- 11Amro Abdelfatah Ali SuragM
- 13F. SassiM
- 8Y. BrahimiM
- 9F. MagriF
- 33Chalpan AbdulnasirD
- 7F. ComanF
- 49R. FaragallaM
- 90A. HassanF
- 31A. KoneG
- 97A. Nasar MohamedF
- 34M. GamalG
- 96A. OunasM
- 5Mostafa EssamD
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al Sadd | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 15 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Sadd and Al-Gharafa
Al Sadd
GoalsAssists
- Akram Afif64
- Roberto Firmino64
- Y. Abdurisag32
Al-Gharafa
GoalsAssists
- Y. Brahimi30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Sadd beat Al-Gharafa 4–1. The model had made a win for Al Sadd its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Yusuf Abdurisag 5' for Al Sadd, Cláudio Luiz Rodrigues Parise Leonel 12' for Al Sadd, Akram Afif 50' for Al Sadd, Yacine Brahimi 82' for Al-Gharafa, Roberto Firmino 90+3' for Al Sadd.