Lusail City vs Al Wakrah Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Lusail City 4-0 Al Wakrah.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Lusail City, 27% draw, 41% Al Wakrah — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Wakrah at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lusail City vs Al Wakrah
Line-ups
- 1A. ShakouriG
- 2A. PilaliD
- 4F. RussoD
- 6O. EbrahimiD
- 27M. AiashD
- 66A. NematiD
- 7F. ZavoshiM
- 20Naif Al HadhramiM
- 8Khaled MohammedM
- 11H. FirouziM
- 19RodrigoF
- 15Abdulhadi Kasr Al-OunM
- 10S. JjbrilM
- 22T. GeralnikM
- 70Mohamed KhaledF
- 30H. KamalD
- 3Ali MalolahD
- 96Amir HassanG
- 5Abdullah Makki Al-KaratlyM
- 14K. MansourM
- 1Mohammed Al BakriG
- 66Mohamed SimoD
- 15Almahdi AliD
- 2Lucas MendesD
- 12Murad Naji HusseinD
- 8Hamdi FathyM
- 93A. LaïdouniM
- 7A. AssalM
- 18Luis AlbertoM
- 75A. ZouhzouhM
- 11R. BerkaneF
- 22Yousef RamadanG
- 10Gelson DalaF
- 9Tameem MansourF
- 5Ahmed FadelM
- 16Nabil IrfanD
- 3P. CalioneD
- 17R. BoussafiF
- 99Omair Al SayedG
- 6Omar Al OsadM
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lusail City | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Al Wakrah | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Lusail City and Al Wakrah
Lusail City
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo40
- F. Zavoshi30
Al Wakrah
GoalsAssists
- A. Zouhzouh51
- Gelson Dala30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lusail City beat Al Wakrah 4–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Wakrah at 41% and given a win for Lusail City 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Hamidreza Firouzi 12' for Lusail City, Rodrigo Machado (penalty) 19' for Lusail City, Farhad Zavoshi 45+4' for Lusail City, Farhad Zavoshi 57' for Lusail City.
How the call on Lusail City v Al Wakrah has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 33% / 28% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 32% / 27% / 41%: the biggest move is Al Wakrah's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Lusail City win32%▼ −1
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Al Wakrah win41%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.