Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Al-Qadisiyah FC, 26% draw, 23% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Qadisiyah FC at 51% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. CasteelsG
- 4J. ThakriD
- 6N. FernandezD
- 17G. AlvarezD
- 2M. Abu Al ShamatM
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 5J. WeiglM
- 22C. Bonsu BaahM
- 33J. QuinonesF
- 10M. Al JuwayrF
- 32M. ReteguiF
- 28A. Al KassarG
- 12Y. Al ShahraniD
- 7T. Al AmmarM
- 15M. Al QahtaniF
- 18A. Al JaberM
- 27E. HoussaM
- 9A. Al SalemF
- 46A. Al Aliwa
- 77S. Harun
- 16E. MendyG
- 46R. HamidouD
- 28M. DemiralD
- 3IbanezD
- 31S. BalobaidD
- 6V. AtanganaM
- 8E. SpertsyanM
- 9F. Al BuraikanM
- 7TrincaoM
- 13GalenoM
- 17I. ToneyF
- 1A. Al SanbiG
- 5M. SulaimanD
- 2Z. Al HawsawiD
- 15S. BaattiaD
- 66N. MasoudM
- 47S. Abu Al ShamatF
- 11M. Al MutairiM
- 29M. AbdulrahmanD
- 21A. RadifF
Form going into Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Qadisiyah FC
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Al Diriyah3 September 2026
- W3-1Al-Faisaly FC30 August 2026
Al-Ahli Jeddah
All competitions we cover
- W5-0Al Riyadh4 September 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Hilal1 September 2026
- L1-3away to Al Kholood29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 12 | +20 | 28 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Qadisiyah FC
GoalsAssists
- T. Reijnders83
- M. Retegui72
- J. Quiñones65
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- I. Toney132
- Trincão63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–2. The model had made a win for Al-Qadisiyah FC its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: T. Reijnders 14' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, M. Abu Al Shamat 45' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, T. Reijnders 45' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, I. Toney 63' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, I. Toney 82' for Al-Ahli Jeddah. On expected goals it finished 2.55–1.26.
How the call on Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Ahli Jeddah has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 51% / 26% / 23%: the biggest move is Al-Qadisiyah FC's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC win51%▲ +4
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Al-Ahli Jeddah win23%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.