7 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al-Hilal vs NEOM Pro League prediction & result

Kingdom Arena, Riyadh
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Al-Hilal 0-2 NEOM.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Al-Hilal, 28% draw, 24% NEOM — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Al-Hilal at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽K. Koulibaly (OG)
Sergej Milinković-Savić
23'
45'
⚽A. Hejjiassist: A. Kone
🔁M. Al Harbiout: N. Al Dawsari
46'
🔁H. Tambaktiout: S. Mandash
46'
46'
🔁A. Al Oyayariout: M. Al Burayk
Mohamed Kanno
50'
58'
Muhannad Al Saad
Crysencio Summerville
60'
64'
Mohammed Alburayk
🔁M. Kannoout: M. Meite
74'
75'
🔁M. Al Saadout: H. Camara
🔁G. Martinelliout: S. Al Mutairi
84'
🔁M. Mahzariout: S. Dahal
84'
84'
🔁A. Lacazetteout: V. Vada
84'
🔁K. Al Absiout: A. Al Anzi
88'
Amadou Koné
90+1'
🔁A. Hejjiout: I. Hawsawi

Match stats — Al-Hilal vs NEOM

63%Possession37%
20Shots11
5On target4
4Corners4
1.81xG1.35

Goals against chances

Al-Hilal0 from 1.81 xGless than the chances were worth
NEOM2 from 1.35 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Hilal 4-1-4-1
  • 33M. Al OwaisG
  • 2M. MahzariD
  • 87H. TambaktiD
  • 3K. KoulibalyD
  • 24M. Al HarbiD
  • 8R. NevesM
  • 7G. MartinelliM
  • 22S. Milinkovic-SavicM
  • 28M. KannoM
  • 38C. SummervilleM
  • 11O. WatkinsF
Substitutes
  • 17M. Al RubaieG
  • 44S. Al Mutairi
  • 55M. Al DawoodD
  • 6N. Al DawsariM
  • 77N. Al HabashiD
  • 18M. Al HawsawiM
  • 27S. MandashF
  • 75M. MeiteF
  • 72S. DahalF
Coach: Simone Inzaghi
NEOM 5-3-2
  • 1M. BulkaG
  • 15A. Al OyayariD
  • 55M. Al DossaryD
  • 44N. ZezeD
  • 5M. SarrD
  • 19M. Abu TahaD
  • 18A. Hejji
  • 72A. KoneM
  • 77M. Al SaadM
  • 14K. Al AbsiF
  • 91A. LacazetteF
Substitutes
  • 81L. MaximianoG
  • 2M. Al BuraykD
  • 75K. Al RammahD
  • 27I. HawsawiD
  • 8F. Al GhamdiM
  • 6A. Al Hassan
  • 23V. VadaM
  • 70H. CamaraF
  • 22A. Al AnziF
Coach: Christophe Galtier

Form going into Al-Hilal vs NEOM

Al-Hilal

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Al Shabab4 September 2026
  • W3-0Al-Ahli Jeddah1 September 2026

NEOM

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Al Khaleej Saihat3 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Al-Hilal10901309+2127
6NEOM11614169+719

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Al-Hilal and NEOM

Al-Hilal

GoalsAssists

  • Gabriel Martinelli60
  • S. Milinković-Savić52
  • O. Watkins45

NEOM

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lacazette62
  • A. Koné41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NEOM won 2–0 at Al-Hilal. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Hilal at 48% and given a win for NEOM 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: K. Koulibaly (own goal) 15' for NEOM, A. Hejji 45' for NEOM. On expected goals it finished 1.81–1.35.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.