Al-Nassr vs Abha Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Nassr 2-1 Abha.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Al-Nassr, 27% draw, 24% Abha — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Nassr at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Nassr vs Abha
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24BentoG
- 12N. BoushalD
- 3M. SimakanD
- 26I. MartinezD
- 6S. Al NasserD
- 20AngeloM
- 17A. Al KhaibariM
- 11Samu CostaM
- 10S. ManeM
- 9A. Al HamdanF
- 7C. RonaldoF
- 1N. Al AqidiG
- 4N. Al SharariD
- 5A. Al AmriD
- 83S. Al NajdiD
- 23A. YahyaM
- 8H. AbdulkareemM
- 56R. Al GhamdiM
- 14S. Al NajeiM
- 60S. HaqawiF
- 16D. LeonG
- 39M. Al-ZaidD
- 3J. GaariD
- 37A. HindiD
- 80S. Al JohaniD
- 11A. GoryM
- 10N. FekirM
- 19A. Al FahadM
- 7F. Al GhamdiM
- 17A. DarisiM
- 44M. BatshuayiF
- 21A. Al Bouq
- 66N. Al Gulaymish
- 28B. Al MutairiM
- 4B. Al SayyaliM
- 12K. Al ShamraniD
- 6F. Al SubianiM
- 29M. Y. Dawran M.M
- 9K. BoumedmedF
- 20K. Al Qahtani
Form going into Al-Nassr vs Abha
Al-Nassr
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad5 September 2026
Abha
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Al-Ettifaq4 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 11 | +17 | 28 |
| 18 | Abha | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Nassr and Abha
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- Cristiano Ronaldo80
- Ângelo53
Abha
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Nassr beat Abha 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Al-Nassr at 49%. The goals: C. Ronaldo 22' for Al-Nassr, A. Al Hamdan 58' for Al-Nassr, N. Fekir 75' for Abha. On expected goals it finished 1.34–0.26.
How the call on Al-Nassr v Abha has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is Al-Nassr's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Al-Nassr win49%▼ −3
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Abha win24%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.