Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Fateh 1-2 Al Diriyah.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Al-Fateh, 31% draw, 31% Al Diriyah — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Fateh at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. SemperG
- 22A. R. Al Khaibre
- 3K. BoatengD
- 78A. Al SuwailemD
- 16A. I. Al KhaibariD
- 8M. LixandruM
- 28Z. YoussoufM
- 11M. BatnaM
- 80F. Al AbdulwahedM
- 10L. HaraslinM
- 9W. KangaF
- 94W. Al EneziG
- 87Bin Mahmoud
- 4Z. Al JariD
- 63M. Al ShqaqD
- 18A. Al FawazM
- 6A. Al HassanM
- 7F. Al ZubaidiF
- 49S. Al SharfaF
- 20H. EssadakM
- 22N. VasiljG
- 2A. Al FarajD
- 99C. MbembaD
- 19B. DjimsitiD
- 16K. A. Al Sibyani H.D
- 88A. Al MalkiM
- 5I. GueyeM
- 17C. DiandyM
- 20E. MillotM
- 10A. BoulbinaM
- 29D. NunezF
- 33W. AbdullahG
- 87Q. LajamiD
- 12T. Wadi
- 21M. HameranD
- 78K. Al AsiriD
- 52H. Al QahtaniM
- 6S. Al FarhanM
- 11H. BahebriF
- 75M. Al NemerF
Form going into Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah
Al-Fateh
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Al Taawon5 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Ittihad29 August 2026
Al Diriyah
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Al-Qadisiyah FC3 September 2026
- W3-0away to Al-Ettifaq29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 6 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Al Diriyah won 2–1 at Al-Fateh. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Fateh at 38% and given a win for Al Diriyah 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: D. Nunez (penalty) 28' for Al Diriyah, F. Al Abdulwahed 35' for Al-Fateh, A. Boulbina (penalty) 45' for Al Diriyah. On expected goals it finished 1.28–2.53.