Karmiotissa
vs
Omonia Nicosia
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Karmiotissa 0–2 Omonia Nicosia
The model makes it 19% Karmiotissa, 27% draw, 54% Omonia Nicosia — fair odds of 5.26, 3.70 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (14%).
Expected goals: Karmiotissa 0.69, Omonia Nicosia 1.94.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Karmiotissa are 12th on 3 points from 4 games; Omonia Nicosia are 3rd on 8 points from 4 games — 1. Division.
- Karmiotissa have not won in their last 4, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Aris.
- Omonia Nicosia are unbeaten in their last 4 (2 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to Krasava Ypsonas.
- Last 6 meetings: Omonia Nicosia 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 February 2025, ended Omonia Nicosia 3–0 Karmiotissa.
All Cypriot First Division predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Karmiotissa vs Omonia Nicosia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Omonia Nicosia at 54% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Karmiotissa vs Omonia Nicosia
Karmiotissa
- D0-0away to Aris20 September 2026
- D1-1Omonia Aradippou12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Omonia 29is Maiou4 September 2026
- L0-3Pafos30 August 2026
Omonia Nicosia
- W4-1Krasava Ypsonas20 September 2026
- D0-0Apollon Limassol12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Aris7 September 2026
- D0-0Omonia Aradippou31 August 2026
What these results say
- Karmiotissa did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Karmiotissa conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Omonia Nicosia went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Karmiotissa vs Omonia Nicosia
- 1 February 2025Omonia Nicosia 3–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
- 28 October 2024Karmiotissa 2–6 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 16 December 2023Omonia Nicosia 2–1 Karmiotissa1. Division
- 26 August 2023Karmiotissa 3–3 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 5 March 2023Karmiotissa 1–2 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 5 December 2022Omonia Nicosia 4–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
A clear gap in the ratings
Karmiotissa carry a model rating of 6.4 against 7.06 for Omonia Nicosia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.69 goals for Karmiotissa and 1.94 for Omonia Nicosia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Karmiotissa rate 0.55 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Omonia Nicosia rate 1.16 and 0.77.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Omonia Nicosia the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Karmiotissa against 1.94 for Omonia Nicosia. Karmiotissa's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/0.77 for Omonia Nicosia.
Season stats
Karmiotissa at home · Omonia Nicosia away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Karmiotissa 4, Omonia Nicosia 4.
Karmiotissa score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Omonia Nicosia have let in 1 there.
Omonia Nicosia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Karmiotissa have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Karmiotissa
- at Krasava Ypsonas17 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 32%
- vs Apollon Limassol25 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 30%
- vs Olympiakos30 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 34%
- at AEK Larnaca7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 16%
- vs AEL22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 38%
Omonia Nicosia
- at Celje15 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
- vs Olympiakos19 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 62%
- vs Benfica22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 36%
- at AEK Larnaca26 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 37%
- vs AEL31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 67%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.