Al-Nassr
vs
Al Diriyah
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Nassr 1–0 Al Diriyah
The model makes it 48% Al-Nassr, 28% draw, 24% Al Diriyah — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al-Nassr 1.75, Al Diriyah 0.92.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Nassr at 48% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 1304 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah
Al-Nassr
- D1-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat12 September 2026
- W2-1Abha9 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad5 September 2026
- W2-1Al Taawon28 August 2026
- W3-2away to Al-Ettifaq25 August 2026
Al Diriyah
- D0-0Abha13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Al-Fateh9 September 2026
- L0-2Al-Qadisiyah FC3 September 2026
- W3-0away to Al-Ettifaq29 August 2026
- D1-1Al Kholood26 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Nassr scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Nassr conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Al-Nassr.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah
- 18 August 2026Al Diriyah 1–4 Al-NassrKing's Cup
Leading scorers: Al-Nassr and Al Diriyah
Al-Nassr
- Ângelo3 goals2 assists
- Cristiano Ronaldo3 goals
Al Diriyah
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Nassr carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.68 for Al Diriyah. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Al-Nassr and 0.92 for Al Diriyah. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Nassr rate 1.14 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Diriyah rate 0.62 and 0.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Nassr a 0.4% chance of the title and Al Diriyah 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Nassr the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Al-Nassr against 0.92 for Al Diriyah. Al-Nassr's attack/defence rating is 1.14/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/0.94 for Al Diriyah.