Al-Hilal
vs
Al-Ittihad
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Hilal 2–1 Al-Ittihad
The model makes it 56% Al-Hilal, 24% draw, 20% Al-Ittihad — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Al-Hilal 2.51, Al-Ittihad 1.04.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al-Hilal vs Al-Ittihad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Hilal at 56% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Hilal vs Al-Ittihad
Al-Hilal
- W6-0away to Al Taawon12 September 2026
- L0-2NEOM7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al Shabab4 September 2026
- W3-0Al-Ahli Jeddah1 September 2026
- W5-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat28 August 2026
Al-Ittihad
- W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC11 September 2026
- W2-1Al-Fayha8 September 2026
- W2-1Al-Nassr5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Fateh29 August 2026
- W3-2Al-Hazm24 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Hilal won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hilal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Ittihad went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Ittihad won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Ittihad scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 18 |
| 2 | Al-Ittihad | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Hilal and Al-Ittihad
Al-Hilal
- S. Milinković-Savić4 goals1 assists
- Sultan Mandash3 goals2 assists
- O. Watkins3 goals2 assists
Al-Ittihad
- G. Ilenikhena4 goals2 assists
- S. Bergwijn4 goals1 assists
- Y. En-Nesyri4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Hilal carry a model rating of 7.07 against 6.68 for Al-Ittihad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.51 goals for Al-Hilal and 1.04 for Al-Ittihad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Hilal rate 1.29 in attack and 0.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Ittihad rate 0.84 and 1.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Hilal a 78.8% chance of the title and Al-Ittihad 2.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Hilal the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Al-Hilal against 1.04 for Al-Ittihad. Al-Hilal's attack/defence rating is 1.29/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.19 for Al-Ittihad.