10 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al-Hilal vs Al-Ittihad Pro League prediction & result

Kingdom Arena, Riyadh
Referee: Khaled Al Teris, Saudi Arabia
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Al-Hilal 3-2 Al-Ittihad.

Before kick-off the model made it 63% Al-Hilal, 21% draw, 16% Al-Ittihad — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Hilal at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Hilal97%Draw3%Al-Ittihad0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Gabriel Martinelliassist: Ollie Watkins
11'
22'
⚽Youssef En-Nesyriassist: Marwan Al-Sahafi
⚽Ollie Watkins
30'
Rúben Neves
37'
38'
Dion Lopy
•Ollie Watkins
45+3'
58'
🔁Marwan Al-Sahafiout: Georginio Wijnaldum
⚽Crysencio Summervilleassist: Ollie Watkins
64'
🔁Saimon Bouabreout: Mohamed Kanno
67'
🔁Theo Hernandezout: Moteb Al-Harbi
67'
69'
🔁Faris Abdiout: Muath Faquihi
69'
🔁Muhannad Al-Shanqeetiout: Ahmed Al Julaydan
73'
Steven Bergwijn
🔁Ollie Watkinsout: Sultan Mandash
81'
🔁Nasser Al-Dawsariout: Murad Al Hawsawi
81'
83'
🔁Ahmed Al-Ghamdiout: Mukhtar Ali
83'
🔁Houssem Aouarout: Saleh Al-Shehri
87'
•Jan-Carlo Simić
89'
⚽Steven Bergwijn (pen)
🔁Hassan Al-Tambaktiout: Ali Lajami
90'
90+6'
Predrag Rajković

Match stats — Al-Hilal vs Al-Ittihad

48%Possession52%
16Shots7
7On target5
9Corners4
2.3xG1.15

Goals against chances

Al-Hilal3 from 2.30 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al-Ittihad2 from 1.15 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Hilal 4-4-2
  • 37Y. BounouG
  • 2Mohammed Mater Mohsin MahzariD
  • 87Hassan TambaktiD
  • 3K. KoulibalyD
  • 19T. HernándezD
  • 70Saïmon BouabréM
  • 8Rúben NevesM
  • 6Nasser Al DawsariM
  • 38C. SummervilleM
  • 7Gabriel MartinelliF
  • 11O. WatkinsF
Substitutes
  • 27Sultan MandashF
  • 18Murad Al HawsawiM
  • 24Moteb Al HarbiD
  • 77Nawaf Al HabashiM
  • 33Mohammed Al OwaisG
  • 96Suhayb Al ZaidM
  • 72S. DahalF
  • 28Mohamed KannoM
  • 78Ali LajamiD
Coach: S. Inzaghi
Al-Ittihad 4-4-2
  • 1P. RajkovićG
  • 13Muhannad Al ShanqitiD
  • 2Danilo PereiraD
  • 4J. ŠimićD
  • 25F. AbdiD
  • 22Marwan Al SahafiM
  • 30D. LopyM
  • 27Ahmed Al GhamdiM
  • 34S. BergwijnM
  • 10H. AouarF
  • 21Y. En-NesyriF
Substitutes
  • 32Ahmed Al JulaydanD
  • 6Saad Al MosaD
  • 29Farhah Al ShamraniM
  • 11Saleh Al ShehriF
  • 8Mukhtar AliM
  • 42Muath FaqeehiD
  • 60Rakan KaabiM
  • 50Mohammed Al AbsiG
  • 23G. WijnaldumM
Coach: Jens Wissing

Form going into Al-Hilal vs Al-Ittihad

Al-Hilal

Pro League

  • W6-0away to Al Taawon12 September 2026

Al-Ittihad

Pro League

  • W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC11 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Al-Hilal111001329+2330
4Al-Ittihad117312111+1024

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Hilal vs Al-Ittihad

  • 21 February 2026Al-Hilal 1–1 Al-IttihadPro League
  • 24 October 2025Al-Ittihad 0–2 Al-HilalPro League
  • 22 February 2025Al-Ittihad 4–1 Al-HilalPro League
  • 7 January 2025Al-Hilal 2–2 Al-IttihadKing's Cup
  • 21 September 2024Al-Hilal 3–1 Al-IttihadPro League

Leading scorers: Al-Hilal and Al-Ittihad

Al-Hilal

GoalsAssists

  • Gabriel Martinelli60
  • O. Watkins55
  • Rúben Neves53

Al-Ittihad

GoalsAssists

  • Y. En-Nesyri70
  • G. Ilenikhena63
  • S. Bergwijn51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Hilal beat Al-Ittihad 3–2. The model had made a win for Al-Hilal its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Gabriel Martinelli 11' for Al-Hilal, Youssef En-Nesyri 22' for Al-Ittihad, Ollie Watkins 30' for Al-Hilal, Crysencio Summerville 64' for Al-Hilal, Steven Bergwijn (penalty) 89' for Al-Ittihad. On expected goals it finished 2.30–1.15.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Hilal these chances to win the league: 53.2% after a win, 44.0% after a draw, 38.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 53.2%.

For Al-Ittihad the question was the chance to finish in the top four: 35.0% after a win, 27.7% after a draw, 24.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 24.3%.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Hilal v Al-Ittihad has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 56% / 24% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 63% / 21% / 16%: the biggest move is Al-Hilal's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Al-Hilal win63%▲ +7
  2. Draw21%▼ −3
  3. Al-Ittihad win16%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.