Apoel Nicosia
vs
Nea Salamis
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Apoel Nicosia 2–1 Nea Salamis
The model makes it 49% Apoel Nicosia, 25% draw, 26% Nea Salamis — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Apoel Nicosia 2.41, Nea Salamis 1.40.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Apoel Nicosia are 9th on 4 points from 4 games; Nea Salamis are 11th on 4 points from 4 games — 1. Division.
- Apoel Nicosia have won 1 of their last 4, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Apollon Limassol.
- Nea Salamis have won 1 of their last 4, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Anorthosis.
- Last 5 meetings: Apoel Nicosia 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 January 2025, ended Nea Salamis 1–1 Apoel Nicosia.
All Cypriot First Division predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Apoel Nicosia at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis
Apoel Nicosia
- D2-2away to Apollon Limassol19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Anorthosis12 September 2026
- W6-0AEL6 September 2026
- L1-3away to AEK Larnaca29 August 2026
Nea Salamis
- W3-0Anorthosis19 September 2026
- L1-2away to AEL11 September 2026
- L1-4AEK Larnaca6 September 2026
- D3-3away to Olympiakos28 August 2026
What these results say
- Apoel Nicosia scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Apoel Nicosia had three goals or more.
- Apoel Nicosia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Nea Salamis scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Nea Salamis had three goals or more.
- Nea Salamis failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Apoel Nicosia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 4 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis
- 8 January 2025Nea Salamis 1–1 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
- 22 September 2024Apoel Nicosia 3–1 Nea Salamis1. Division
- 26 January 2024Nea Salamis 0–4 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
- 21 October 2023Apoel Nicosia 1–0 Nea Salamis1. Division
- 6 March 2023Apoel Nicosia 3–0 Nea Salamis1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Apoel Nicosia carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.5 for Nea Salamis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.41 goals for Apoel Nicosia and 1.40 for Nea Salamis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Apoel Nicosia rate 0.85 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nea Salamis rate 0.84 and 1.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Apoel Nicosia the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Apoel Nicosia against 1.40 for Nea Salamis. Apoel Nicosia's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.74 for Nea Salamis.
Season stats
Apoel Nicosia at home · Nea Salamis away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Apoel Nicosia 4, Nea Salamis 4.
Apoel Nicosia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Nea Salamis have let in 2 there.
Nea Salamis score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Apoel Nicosia have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Apoel Nicosia
- at Pafos19 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 26%
- vs Omonia 29is Maiou25 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 46%
- at Omonia Aradippou1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 35%
- vs Aris8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 45%
- at Omonia Nicosia21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 16%
Nea Salamis
- at Apollon Limassol17 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 23%
- vs Pafos26 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 33%
- at Omonia 29is Maiou1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- vs Omonia Aradippou6 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 42%
- at Aris21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.