AEL
vs
Omonia 29is Maiou
1. Division prediction
Our model says: AEL 2–1 Omonia 29is Maiou
The model makes it 38% AEL, 27% draw, 35% Omonia 29is Maiou — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: AEL 1.71, Omonia 29is Maiou 1.60.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: AEL and Omonia 29is Maiou are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- AEL are 2nd on 9 points from 4 games; Omonia 29is Maiou are 7th on 5 points from 4 games — 1. Division.
- AEL have won 3 of their last 4, most recently a 2-0 win away to Pafos.
- Omonia 29is Maiou are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to AEK Larnaca.
- Last 3 meetings: AEL 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 March 2025, ended Omonia 29is Maiou 0–3 AEL.
All Cypriot First Division predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: AEL vs Omonia 29is Maiou
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEL at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AEL vs Omonia 29is Maiou
AEL
- W2-0away to Pafos18 September 2026
- W2-1Nea Salamis11 September 2026
- L0-6away to Apoel Nicosia6 September 2026
- W2-0Anorthosis30 August 2026
Omonia 29is Maiou
- L1-2AEK Larnaca18 September 2026
- D3-3away to Olympiakos13 September 2026
- D2-2Karmiotissa4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Krasava Ypsonas28 August 2026
What these results say
- AEL won 3 of these 4 matches.
- AEL scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Omonia 29is Maiou scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Omonia 29is Maiou had three goals or more.
- Omonia 29is Maiou failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEL | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AEL vs Omonia 29is Maiou
- 30 March 2025Omonia 29is Maiou 0–3 AEL1. Division
- 14 December 2024AEL 1–1 Omonia 29is Maiou1. Division
- 24 August 2024Omonia 29is Maiou 2–4 AEL1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AEL carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.57 for Omonia 29is Maiou. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for AEL and 1.60 for Omonia 29is Maiou. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AEL rate 0.66 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Omonia 29is Maiou rate 0.89 and 1.59.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEL the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for AEL against 1.60 for Omonia 29is Maiou. AEL's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.59 for Omonia 29is Maiou.
Season stats
AEL at home · Omonia 29is Maiou away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: AEL 4, Omonia 29is Maiou 4.
AEL score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Omonia 29is Maiou have let in 1 there.
Omonia 29is Maiou score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); AEL have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
AEL
- at Omonia Aradippou18 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- vs Aris25 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 37%
- at Omonia Nicosia31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 12%
- vs Krasava Ypsonas7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 46%
- at Karmiotissa22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 32%
Omonia 29is Maiou
- vs Anorthosis18 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 49%
- at Apoel Nicosia25 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- vs Nea Salamis1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 48%
- at Pafos8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 24%
- at Apollon Limassol22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.